The Daily View: New world order
AMID the chaos, the tariffs, the regulatory uncertainty and the general feeling that investment in the future is more a case of spread betting than strategy, new trading norms are emerging.
The global supply chain is adapting, and it is evolving.
Yes, US imports are down. But not by as much as you might think given the trade barriers being erected.
And yes, the US may be taking in less from China, but not significantly less. Besides, China is happily ramping up exports elsewhere.
Intra-Asia traffic is booming as supply chains adapt and evolve around the new world order of shifting trade lanes.
This is by no means all about de-risking supply chains for goods that, in the end, will end up in North America. What we are seeing is the beginning of a series of shifting trade lanes, much of which is starting to look like longer term adaptation, rather than reactive re-jigs.
Carriers are redrawing the map of US container connectivity as direct transpacific services shrink in favour of longer, multi-leg routes. Driven by tariff uncertainty, fleet expansion and strategic redeployment, the shift marks a pivotal reconfiguration of global supply chains, with intermediary trades surging and traditional Asia-US links losing dominance.
But this is also about Chinese companies accelerating overseas production, cementing long-term growth strategies and generally looking to diversify and spread the risk in an increasingly fragmented market.
While the US may have accelerated some of these trends, China’s supply chains have been undergoing this transition for years and not just in terms of the Asian growth.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has been laying the foundations for growth markets since 2013, particularly in the global south, has been quietly quickened in response to the Trump effect.
The first half of this year alone has seen over $120bn in new contracts and investment handed out in the scheme, according to the Griffith Asia Institute’s latest research. That’s the highest level ever recorded for a six-month period.
Container moves may be the visible bit of the trade evolution, but this is a shift across all strategic sectors, at volume.
Chinese entities have signed $6.2bn in construction contracts and $57.1bn in investments across BRI partner countries so far this year.
This is China leveraging its industrial strengths to secure future competitiveness and supply chain resilience in a shifting global economy.
Despite global economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty globalisation is alive and well. It is just evolving amid diversifying supply chains and a new world order that is less focused on the US.
Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List
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