Ukraine’s intensified attacks targeting Russia’s oil facilities to continue
UKRAINE has intensified its drone campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure in recent weeks, targeting sites on the Baltic and Black Seas, which experts say could in the long run cause disruption at the key export hubs.
In the early hours of September 24 more than a dozen UAVs and USVs targeted Russia’s Novorossiysk port in the east of the Black Sea.
Later that day Ukrainian drones targeted the tanker terminal in Tuapse, located southwest of Novorossiysk, according to maritime security firm Ambrey.
The targeting of Russia’s oil facilities in the Black Sea are just the latest incidents in Ukraine’s campaign to put pressure on Russian exports and eventually its economy.
The Baltic port of Primorsk, which hosts Russia’s largest oil terminal, was attacked by over 200 drones on September 12.
EOS Risk head of advisory Martin Kelly said export operations at Primorsk were disrupted because of the incident, with loadings being partially resumed at a reduced capacity afterwards.
Anna Zheminko, an analyst at energy intelligence provider Vortexa, said diesel loadings from Primorsk were on a three-month decline in September, with a 23% decrease month on month from September 1-25.
“This is likely prompted by lower refinery runs amid heavy Ukrainian drone attack period as well as seasonal maintenance period,” Zheminko said.
Primorsk crude loadings have been stable at 1.1m barrels per day weekly average since the start of the month.
“Overall crude volumes loaded from Primorsk in September are 7% higher month-on-month over the September 1-25 period, which is mainly driven by additional Ust-Luga volumes, re-routed after Ukraine’s attack earlier in August,” Zheminko said.
During the September 12 attack on Primorsk, drones hit several pumping stations feeding the Ust-Luga terminal on the other side of the Gulf of Finland across Primorsk.
Total crude loadings from Ust-Luga decreased by 24% month on month for the first 25 days of September, Zheminko added.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports and oil refineries is not a new strategy, but the frequency and intensity of these attacks has increased in the past few weeks.
Vortexa analyst Anna Zheminko told Lloyd’s List that the volumes exported from Novorossiysk so far this week have been 16% lower than the three-week average in September. Since Monday, two tankers have loaded so far and are still awaiting departure from the port.
It is difficult to assess traffic into Black Sea ports using vessel tracking data because of severe Global Navigation Satellite System interference.
However, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows that one vessel, the Liberia-flagged 38,341 dwt Kingston(IMO: 9420863)was the first ship to arrive in the port of Novorossiysk after the attack on Wednesday, arriving the morning of September 25.
No inbound calls were captured on September 24. However, this is not unusual and there were several days last month where no arrivals were recorded.
There is no indication that the port was evacuated, with satellite images issued after the alert showing vessels berthed at port.
Kelly told Lloyd’s List that the latest attacks pointed to a clear intensification and geographic expansion of Ukraine’s broader drone-strike campaign, and that Ukraine was escalating from isolated naval strikes to systematic pressure on Russia’s export infrastructure, aimed at choking Russia’s economic lifelines while exposing enduring vulnerabilities in its naval rear areas.
“There is potential for meaningful disruption, though the degree depends on a few variables such as scale and persistence of attacks, Russia’s repair capability, availability of alternate routes,” Kelly said.
Even though the damage was limited after the latest attacks, “repeated or more severe strikes could degrade port capacity, pipelines, tank storage, pumps, loading jetties, which would raise bottlenecks in Russian oil export chains”.
In the long term, according to Kelly, this would disrupt key export hubs and squeeze Russia’s oil revenue, which is central to funding its war effort.
Security experts are expecting further attacks.
Risk intelligence analyst Kristian Bischoff said Ukraine’s targeting of energy products and export infrastructure would continue because it is “a high-impact and low-risk way for Ukraine to pressure the Russian economy and war machine”.
Russian oil products are expected to remain under pressure due to Ukraine drone strikes causing damage, according to a Vortexa report from earlier this month.
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