The rise and fall of container spot rates — and what it means for 2026
Meanwhile, carrier capacity management metrics are even worse today than they were two years ago.
Scrapping is virtually non-existent. According to MSI, a mere 6,900 teu was recycled in 1H25. In comparison, 79,200 teu was scrapped in 1H23.
Just 0.7% of the global fleet is commercially idle, according to Alphaliner, which said the fleet is now “at full employment”. At this time in 2023, 3.3% of the fleet was idled.
How prepared are carriers for losses this time around?
Liquidity reserves remain very high, albeit not quite as high as they used to be for some carriers.
Maersk had total liquidity of $24.7bn at the end of 2Q25, down 8% from $26.8bn at the end of 3Q23. Zim had $2.9bn in liquidity at the end of June, down 7% versus $3.1bn at the end of 3Q23.
Hapag-Lloyd has built its liquidity reserves back up over the past two years.
Its liquidity reserve was at $13.4bn at the end of 2022, then it paid out a massive $12.2bn dividend in 1H23, disbursing its spoils from the Covid boom to five main shareholders led by Kuhne Holding and CSAV (with very little to the public; the free float at the time was just 3.6%).
That payout brought Hapag-Lloyd’s liquidity reserves down to $3bn at the end of 3Q23, just before the Houthi attacks. By of the end of 2Q25, it had risen to $7.1bn, or just over half the way back to where it was before the special dividend.
Four spikes in two years
The spot rate environment continues to worsen, heightening risks to next year’s annual contract negotiations. Most of the carriers’ volumes are moved on annual contracts and spot indexes signal future directional trends for contract rates.
That said, carriers increased their annual contract rates in both 2024 and 2025, so if the spot market does pull contract rates down next year, headwinds would be off a higher base.
The various spot rate indexes show the same historical pattern over the past two years, with four distinct spikes.
The first came in late 2023 and early 2024, driven by the Red Sea crisis. Rates fell back after Chinese New Year.
The second and largest spike came in the summer of 2024, as the positive effect of route diversions around the Cape of Good Hope coincided with peak season demand. Rates peaked at the second-highest point in container shipping’s history, surpassed only by the pandemic era.
After falling in the second half of last year, rates rebounded in late 2024 and early this year following the election of US President Donald Trump as importers began frontloading to hedge tariff risks. US front-loading was also driven by the threat of a port strike.
Spot pricing sank this spring amid Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. Weakness was also attributed to the introduction of new alliances that reduced carriers’ ability to blank sailings.
Rising fleet capacity was yet another factor. The switch from the Red Sea to the much-longer Cape of Good Hope route was the equivalent of removing 1.5m-2m teu of capacity from the world fleet, according to Maersk. But by 2025, relentless newbuilding deliveries had offset rerouting upside.
The fourth spike, primarily in US trades, came this May and June, driven by Trump’s reprieve on China tariffs.
Freight pricing has been falling since July, with the exception of a small bump in US rates in early September that quickly faded.
The latest slide has brought rates to the where they were before the initial spike driven by the Red Sea crisis in late December 2023.
Back to pre-Red Sea crisis spot rates
The situation is looking particularly dire in the Asia-US west coast lane, where spot rates are below break-even.
The SCFI assessed Shanghai-US west coast rates at just $1,460 per feu for the week ending Friday, down 11% week on week. This index has not been this low since July 7, 2023.
The SCFI Shanghai-US east coast index fell 7% to $2,385 per feu, the lowest reading since November 24, 2023.
In the Asia westbound trades, SCFI indexes have sunk to readings last seen on December 8, 2023. The SCFI Shanghai-North Europe index came in at $1,942 per feu, down 8%. The SCFI Shanghai-Mediterranean assessment was $2,970 per feu, down 9%.
Drewry’s World Container Index assessed Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rates at $2,311 per feu for the week ending Thursday, down 10%. The is essentially the same level (just $24 higher) than the reading on November 9, 2023.
The WCI Shanghai-New York index is at $3,278 per feu, down 8%, and just $378 per feu higher than on the same date in 2023.
The WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam assessment was $1,735 per feu, down 9%. It is only $68 per feu above its level on December 21, 2024.
The WCI Shanghai-Genoa index came in at $1,990 per feu, down 7%, to the lowest level since the last week of December 2023.
Xeneta provides daily assessments of average short-term rates. Its data shows the same trend patterns as the SCFI and WCI.
Xeneta put average Asia-US west coast short-term rates on Friday at $1,884 per feu, the lowest since October 31, 2023, and average Asia-US east coast rates at $2,873 per feu, the lowest since December 14, 2023.
Xeneta’s Asia westbound assessments are the lowest since December 31, 2023. It put the Asia-North Europe average at $1,919 per feu, and the Asia-Mediterranean average at $2,484 per feu.
When will carriers shift to capacity management?
To sum up the situation for carriers: spot rates are as low as they were in late 2023; contract rates are higher; the capacity situation is worse; demand is moderately better, but has tariff-driven risks to the downside; capacity management metrics are worse; and liquidity reserves are still exceptionally high but not quite as lofty as they were just after the pandemic boom.
Those high liquidity reserves could play a significant role in 2026 freight rates. Carriers can handle below break-even rates for far longer than they could pre-Covid.
The worst-case scenario for 2026 is that liquidity reserves delay full-scale capacity management and lead some carriers to focus on market share, spurring a price war.
There could be some new “surprise” that rescues the liners yet again, whether that’s a new geopolitical event or global demand that turns out to be much more resilient than economists predict.
But if not, the best-case scenario for carriers in 2026 is that they opt to finally scrap ships, idle tonnage and let charters expire, rather than running services at a loss.
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