Market faces added complexity from shadow fleet activity: New analysis

VesselsValue has issued its shipping market outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting how structural disruptions, sanctions dynamics, and market complexity arising from the “shadow fleet” activity, are shaping freight rates and future vessel earnings across the tanker, bulker, container, and gas sectors.

According to VesselsValue, global shipping markets remain shaped by significant structural disruptions. The EU ban on Russian oil imports and ongoing Suez Canal diversions are extending voyage distances and tightening vessel supply. These developments provide strong support for current freight rates.

However, the market faces added complexity from a substantial shadow fleet transporting sanctioned crude and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. These cargoes are primarily shipped to China and India, displacing demand for conventional tonnage.

Any successful tightening