The Daily View: Turning a blind eye
THERE are known illicit trades. There are known unknown illicit trades where we choose to look away. And there are also unknown illicit trades where we really don’t want to know about them at all.
But much like Donald Rumsfeld’s original garbled categorisation of knowledge and uncertainty, this all comes down to how hard we are prepared to look.
The fact that the vast majority of sanctioned Iranian oil has been using Malaysia, and various other Southeast Asian countries, as an entry point into China is hardly a secret.
Malaysia’s latest realisation that it has been ‘unwittingly’ aiding the siphoning sanctioned crude into China’s teapot refineries for years has prompted it into promising a crackdown.
The fact that this comes as the US is applying pressure and Malaysia needs to get a bi-lateral trade agreement over the line is mere coincidence. Whether the promise of a crackdown results in ship-to-ship transfers happening elsewhere remains to be seen, but it is unlikely to stem the flow, merely move it to another location. Most likely it won’t even manage that.
Meanwhile, the initial shock of the resumption of Houthi violence in the Red Sea has evaporated, leaving only the unanswered questions about how this was allowed to happen and where the naval support has disappeared to.
On the first question, a retrospective clue regarding the quiet, but nonetheless trackable, illicit shipments from Iran into Yemen might offer some insight regarding the recent stockpiling of Houthi weapons, even as Israel and the US pounded Houthi bases with missile strikes.
Even a cursory review of recent reports from the UN Security Council’s panel of experts will reveal that this is not exactly an unknown illicit trade. And yet, until last week, much of the shipping industry had been of the opinion that the Red Sea was imminently going to be re-opened for business.
All trade, regardless of how sophisticated the obfuscation, spoofing and circumvention get, is ultimately trackable. It’s really just a question of how hard you want to look and whether you are prepared to heed the risk warnings such research offers.
Sometimes writing these things off as unknown unknowns is easier than actually dealing with the known risks.
Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List
Content Original Link:
" target="_blank">
