ONE further slashes profit forecast and warns market downturn may deepen

OCEAN Network Express has again downgraded its full-year profit guidance and cautioned that market conditions could deteriorate further.

In its interim results released Tuesday, the container line lowered its profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to $310m, down from $700m projected on August 1 — itself already $400m below the baseline estimate published at the end of April.

The latest projection assumes that the wave of new ship deliveries weighing on the market will persist over the next four months, while Red Sea diversions, which have temporarily absorbed capacity, are also expected to continue.

According to Linerlytica, once rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope subsides, more than 130 vessels — nearly 6% of the world’s boxship fleet — could be released back into service, adding significant pressure on freight and charter markets.

ONE has posted $317m in profit over the first two quarters of the fiscal year, including $285m between July and September, when freight rates were boosted by tariff-driven frontloading. The guidance cut suggests that the line could post losses in the second half.

“The global environment remains subject to significant uncertainties,” ONE said. “The overall market environment may not prove as robust as initially projected.”

The carrier also cited potential impacts from tariff policies and the US Trade Representatives actions.

The comments came after Beijing and Washington agreed to a temporary trade deal, which includes halving fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese products to 10% and suspending their reciprocal port fees for one year.

The first measure is seen as broadly supportive of container demand, while the latter could limit carriers’ pricing power as logistics disruptions ease.

Nevertheless, freight rate indices have rebounded sharply in recent weeks, though analysts warn their durability remains uncertain.

Fearnley Securities noted that the recent surge has been driven by short-term factors such as blank sailings, general rate increases, port congestion in Asia, and port fee disruptions.

“Hence we argue freight rates should continue to be under pressure going forwards and believe 2026 should offer a year with losses for the liners,” the brokerage said.