Sanctioned LPG fleet swells in October but impact remains to be seen
LOADINGS of Iranian-origin liquefied petroleum gas exceeded 800,000 tonnes in October, capping a third consecutive month of declines but a 16% year-on-year growth, according to Lloyd’s List analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, and cargo data from Vortexa.
On a year-to-date basis, loadings in Iran are up by about 9%, while the fleet shipping Iranian LPG grew 7% by dwt, Lloyd’s List estimates.
Iran’s LPG sector has come under increasing scrutiny under the Trump administration as part of its “maximum pressure 2.0” on Iran.
On October 9, the US Treasury Department announced its most sweeping action against Iran’s LPG sector and the shadow fleet* facilitating its exports, targeting 14 LPG carriers, of which 11 are very large gas carriers that mainly trade on the Iran-China route.
It remains to be seen whether the designations, which brought the total of Iran-trading LPG carriers blocked under US sanctions to over 40% by dwt, will have a substantial impact on Iran’s LPG exports.
US sanctions raise roadblocks and complicate logistics, but Tehran is adept at skirting them, courtesy of opaque networks of intermediaries, the shadow fleet and buyers willing to swallow the risk in exchange for steeply discounted barrels.
Iran’s crude exports nosedived after US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions during his first term, but have steadily increased since as the shadow fleet grew and Tehran’s circumvention tactics and mechanisms evolved.
But the new focus on LPG may prove more challenging to adapt to, at least in the short term. Iran’s LPG is shipped more efficiently than its crude oil, although Tehran has been able to optimise its crude export logistics in recent months. Still, an Iranian crude oil cargo will likely undergo several STS transfers before reaching its customers. LPG typically takes a more direct route, undergoing one STS transfer if any (lightering operations notwithstanding).
Complicating Iran’s LPG supply chains with additional transfers will add costs and likely slow deliveries. However, the extent to which the fresh sanctions will have an impact on these vessels’ tradability is still unknown — at least three of the vessels sanctioned last month have discharged cargoes in China since their designation, according to Vortexa.
The effect of October’s action on volumes should become clearer in the coming weeks and months.
Expanding spoofing geography
Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s LPG shadow fleet stands at 117 vessels totalling nearly 4m dwt, including 108 that carried Iranian cargoes in 2025. There are 44 sanctioned LPG carriers, of which 41 are active in Iran trades; the remaining three are the Houston-stranded Tinos I (IMO: 9969821) — which has never lifted a cargo — and two LPG carriers sanctioned for Hezbollah links.
United Arab Emirates-based shipmanagers accounted for almost 25% of the fleet, more than any other nation, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. India was second at 14.5%.
P&I insurance for about half of the non-sanctioned vessels in the fleet is unknown, with the other half insured with Western providers, primarily fixed-premium.
While it is common to see LPG carriers spoofing the AIS in the Middle East Gulf to hide loadings of Iranian cargoes, Lloyd’s List has recently reported on an increasing rise in gas carriers spoofing in the Baltic to hide loadings in Russia — the reasons for which are not entirely clear.
Russian LPG is not subject to the same prohibitions on provision of services under the G7 Price Cap mechanism on Moscow’s crude and refined products.
The EU has banned some LPG imports in December 2024 and announced more restrictions in the 19th sanctions package last month, but none of the cargoes lifted by the Russia-loading, AIS-spoofing LPG carriers was delivered to Europe.
As no sanctions are apparently being circumvented by these vessels, it is unclear why they engage in AIS manipulation.
* Lloyd’s List defines an LPG carrier as being part of the LPG Shadow Fleet if it engages in one or more deceptive shipping practices, or if it is sanctioned by the US, UK or EU.
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