The Daily View: Grim predictability

ON MONDAY, Lloyd’s List reported an attempted attack on a Stolt-Nielsen tanker by a group of pirates off the coast of Somalia.

The pattern unfolding was a familiar one. Several fishing boat attacks, which fit the profile of a pirate action group seeking a mothership from which to launch attacks on bigger vessels.

We warned that more attacks were imminent.

On Thursday, Hellas Aphrodite (IMO: 9722766) was boarded at around 0742 hrs after being fired on by a small craft with a mothership in tow.

The desks of Lloyd’s List are not occupied by clairvoyants, but rather people who have been studying the form for more than a decade.

The truth is conditions for a resurgent piracy threat in Somalia have been brewing for some time.

Funding from the UAE government pumped into the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, which had spearheaded the anti-piracy effort, has been redirected towards the fight against Islamic State in Somalia.

On that note, strengthening links between the Houthis and al-Shabaab in the region have seen an uptick in arms trafficking and smuggling, which means more cash flying around for potential pirates to get in on.

Add in the significant rerouting of merchant vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and a dash of an under-resourced Eunavfor operation to patrol the huge area of Indian Ocean in which these incidents take place, and the recipe is pretty much complete.

Many in the industry have seen this particular film before and the ending is not a happy one.

One successful boarding, which results in a ransom payment, acts as a beacon to other would-be pirates in what is, let’s not forget, a desperately poor corner of the world.

The relative riches on the table are significant, and more than make the risk of running into Indian commandos or being fired upon by a ship’s security detail worthwhile.

Somali piracy was beaten back from its high-water point midway through the last decade, but it took a concerted effort by several navies and the industry, plus landside operations in Somalia itself, to do so.

Other problems have superseded the Somali threat since then, and shipping has taken its eye off that particular ball.

Today will therefore serve as a painful refresher for many.

There is a good chance it will get even more painful yet.

Joshua Minchin
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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