Could shipping shares offer safe haven as broader stock market fears mount?
THE BROADER stock market is under pressure due to concerns over excessively rich tech valuations and a weakening, tariff-impaired US economy. Shipping stock performance has been pulling away from the pack, led by strong rate fundamentals in several segments.
Crude tanker and containership lessor stocks have been leading the upward charge in recent weeks.
Stocks in these two categories have risen significantly since the end of September on positive news in quarterly calls and recent rate developments.
Lloyd’s List analysed the change in adjusted closing prices of US- and European-listed shipping equities with market caps over $300m from December 31, 2024 to November 17, 2025. Stocks were categorised by segment, with average year-to-date (YTD) segment changes weighted by the market caps of the component stocks.
These changes were then compared to YTD moves of the SPDR exchange-traded fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, a proxy for the broader stock market, as well as to Breakwave’s two shipping ETFs, the BDRY dry bulk ETF and BWET crude tanker ETF.
SPDR is up 15% YTD. Only two shipping segments are performing worse in aggregate: liner stocks, down 2%, and multi-segment shipping stocks, up 10%.
All other shipping segments are outperforming the S&P 500 ETF this year, with crude tanker stocks up 69% YTD, boxship lessors by 39%, dry bulk 31%, product tankers 24% and gas carriers 20%.
Breakwave’s ETFs, which buy near-dated forward freight agreements, are outpacing shipowner equities in their respective segments. BDRY is up 44% YTD and BWET is up a 120%.
The Lloyd’s List analysis covered 37 listed shipowners. At the end of 3Q25, when the survey was last conducted, these companies had an aggregate market cap of $105.1bn (heavily inflated by two European-listed liner companies). Halfway through 4Q25, the aggregate market cap had risen by $2.1bn, to $107.2bn.
During the same period the SPDR ETF has risen and then fallen back, remaining relatively unchanged.
The aggregate market cap of surveyed crude tanker owners increased 14% over the course of the past six weeks, with the market cap of containership lessors rising 11%.
Crude tankers
Crude tanker spot rates are at their highest level since the floating storage boom at the beginning of the pandemic.
Very large crude carrier spot rates from the Middle East Gulf to China are now close to $125,000 per day. There is no expectation of a major correction for at least the rest of 4Q25.
Beyond BWET, which is heavily weighted to MEG-China VLCC FFAs, the crude tanker stock performance table is led by the VLCC owners Okeanis Eco Tankers and Frontline, up 89% and 82% YTD respectively.
Containership lessors
Current weakness in container spot freight rates has yet to flow through to the boxship leasing market.
Lessor executives speaking on recent quarterly calls emphasised that charter rates remain high and durations remain long. Lessor charter backlogs have already covered most of their downside exposure for the next two years, and there is no sign that liner demand for chartered tonnage is flagging.
This year’s stark disconnect between charter rates and freight rates has been a surprise, thus the upward move in boxship lessor stock prices.
Euroseas, despite its relatively small size, with a market cap of $431m, has not only been the best performer in the boxship lessor segment, it has been the best performer of any shipping stock. Its adjusted closing price is now up 118% year to date.
Global Ship Lease, with a market cap of $1.2bn, is up 69% YTD.
Dry bulk
Dry bulk stocks are also showing high YTD percentage gains, although this is partly because sentiment was terrible at the start of 2025, so the rise is off a low base.
Current sentiment in the capesize sector is being supported by the startup of the Simandou iron-ore export project in Guinea, which shipped its first cargo last week. If Simandou ramps up capacity as scheduled, it could have a major positive effect on capesize tonne-mile demand over the coming years.
The adjusted share price of Himalaya Shipping is now up 73% YTD, with Safe Bulkers in second place among listed owners, up 39%.
Product tankers
The gripe among tanker investors on product carrier equities is that they are lagging well behind their crude counterparts. They still are, but they’re doing better of late.
Scorpio Tankers was up 16% YTD at the end of 3Q25; now it’s up 28%. Hafnia was up 10% as of September 30. It’s now up 20%.
Torm, which could face a takeover bid from Hafnia, is up 26% YTD. Six weeks ago, it was up 14%.
Gas carriers
Gas carrier stocks cover very different subsegments: liquefied natural gas shipping (CoolCo and Flex LNG), very large gas carriers transporting propane and butane (Dorian LPG and BW LPG), and a handysize liquefied natural gas carrier owner (Navigator Gas).
Share pricing of the LNG carrier owners has risen over the past six weeks. Spot LNG shipping rates have finally rebounded after a year-long slump. In addition, CoolCo’s YTD performance was inflated by the take-private deal.
Shares of VLGC owners Dorian and BW LPG have pulled back in recent weeks as VLGC spot rates have seasonally fallen. Shares of Navigator, which are not exposed to VLGC rates, are up since the end of 3Q25.
Multi-segment owners
Stock performance of multi-segment owners varies widely because they all have different exposures to rates in various segments.
CMB.Tech is by far the largest player in this category, with a market cap of $3bn. It also has the second-worst share performance, down 2% YTD.
CMB.Tech is heavily focused on green fuels, a market factor that has been hamstrung by the failure of the International Maritime Organization to approve the Net Zero Framework in the face of US opposition.
The worst performer among multi-segment owners is ship lessor SFL, which is being pressured by exposure to a long-unemployed drill rig, and is down 14% YTD.
The best-performing multi-segment stock is Navios Partners, up 24% YTD. Navios is exposed to rate trends in the two top-performing segments: crude tankers and containership leasing.
Most of the companies with multi-segment fleets are performing better than SPDR. The market-cap weighted average of the group is lower than SPDR solely because of the high market caps of CMB.Tech and SFL.
Container lines
If shipping stocks work properly, the segment with the best outlook on freight rates should be at the top and the one with the worst outlook should be at the bottom.
Shipping stocks look like they’re working, because crude tankers are in the lead and container lines are in the rear.
Liner fundamentals are poor. The orderbook is very high and new orders keep coming, tariffs are negatively impacting demand in the US import market, the Red Sea route looks like it might reopen next year, and spot rates are already low.
The aggregate market cap of the four liners covered in the Lloyd’s List analysis — Zim, Matson, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk — fell by $1.1bn between September 30 and Monday.
While Zim’s shares rose over the past six weeks, shares of the other three declined.
Maersk continues to be an outlier in terms of YTD performance. It’s still up 16% YTD, just above SPDR. However, Maersk is much more than a shipping line — only 66% of Maersk’s revenues in the first nine months was from the liner division — and its stock pricing is being buoyed by buybacks.
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