Disruptions and Delays at Maritime Chokepoints Could Cost $14B Per Year

The challenges of the past few years have increased the awareness of the vulnerability of the shipping industry to delays as congestion builds in key ports and routes faced disruptions ranging from geopolitical issues to piracy, terrorism, or natural hazards driven by extreme weather.

A new study estimates that disruptions at these critical points affect around $192 billion worth of maritime trade each year. These disruptions result in estimated economic losses of about $14 billion annually, through delays, rerouting, insurance premiums, and higher freight costs. The researchers suggest that international cooperation and coordinated risk management will be essential to prevent and mitigate future disruptions.

The researchers analyzed 24 major maritime chokepoints, including the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Malacca — vital trade arteries through which much of the world’s goods and energy supplies flow. They found that chokepoint disruptions lead to around $10.7 billion in annual direct economic losses, equivalent to 0.04% of global trade. The greatest impacts are concentrated in countries such as Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Panama, given their strong dependency on at-risk maritime chokepoints.

An additional $3.4 billion is lost each year globally due to rising shipping costs, as freight rates spike when trade routes are blocked or ships have to reroute. These increases affect all countries, not only those directly linked to the disrupted chokepoint, by driving up the cost of transport and subsequently consumer prices.

“Our global economy depends on just a handful of maritime chokepoints,” said Dr. Jasper Verschuur, lead author of the report. He notes that, “When one of these narrow passages is disrupted, the consequences can quickly ripple across continents. Understanding these risks is vital for building resilience into global supply chains.”

The study found that many of these threats — whether human-induced, like armed conflict and piracy, or natural, such as cyclones— are interconnected. Armed conflict and terrorism often occur together at certain chokepoints such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Bosporus, and the Lombok Strait, while around 40 percent of tropical cyclones affect more than one chokepoint at the same time. In some cases, piracy in one region appeared to increase the likelihood of attacks elsewhere.

These overlapping risks, the report concludes, mean that multiple chokepoints could be disrupted simultaneously, severely limiting the world’s ability to reroute ships and maintain trade flows.

“The co-occurrence of hazards shows how interlinked our maritime system really is. A single event in one part of the world can trigger or amplify risks elsewhere,” said Dr. Johannes Lumma. “Analysing these dependencies helps us anticipate compound disruptions and better prepare for them.”

The authors report that the findings underscore the systemic vulnerabilities within global trade networks. Disruptions at key chokepoints can cause cascading effects — from factory shutdowns due to missing components to price increases felt by consumers worldwide.

The researchers argue that reducing these risks will require a layered resilience strategy, tailored to the types of chokepoint each country or company depends on. This could include maintaining emergency stockpiles, diversifying supply chains, investing in security, and developing insurance products that cover rare but severe disruptions.

“Maritime chokepoints may be geographically small, but they have an enormous impact on how the global economy functions,” said Professor Jim Hall, co-author and Director of OPSIS. “Keeping them open and secure is a global priority. By identifying where and how the system is most vulnerable, we can help governments and businesses strengthen resilience to future shocks.”

The research was published in Nature Communications and titled “Systemic impacts of disruptions at maritime chokepoints.” It was conducted by Dr. Jasper Verschuur, Dr. Johannes Lumma, and Prof. Jim Hall, researchers at the Oxford Programme for Sustainable Infrastructure Systems (OPSIS) at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford. The study was supported by The Oxford Martin Systemic Resilience Initiative and received additional support from the Gallagher Research Centre.