Global trade set to hit record $35trn this year before slowing

GLOBAL trade is on track to surpass $35trn for the first time in 2025, according to the latest Global Trade Update from UN Trade and Development (Unctad), but trade growth is set to slow in 2026.

The report projects worldwide trade growth of about 7% this year, adding an estimated $2.2trn to total flows this year, despite persistent geopolitical and economic headwinds.

Unctad said trade expansion continued through the second half of 2025, though at a slower pace.

Between July and September, global trade rose 2.5% from the previous quarter, with goods increasing nearly 2% and services by 4%.

Growth is expected to moderate further in the final quarter, advancing 0.5% for goods and 2% for services. Overall, goods trade is expected to contribute about $1.5trn to the year’s gains, while services add roughly $750bn.

Unctad noted a shift in trade dynamics as falling prices replaced previous inflation-driven gains. The latest increases now stem mainly from higher volumes, signalling steady underlying demand as global inflation cools.

Additionally, regional and sectoral trends point to intra-Asia, Africa, and South–South trade as key drivers.

East Asia posted 9% export growth, supported by a 10% rise in intra-regional exchange. Africa’s imports climbed 10%, and South–South flows expanded 8%, highlighting deepening ties among developing economies. China, South Korea, India, Brazil and South Africa were standout performers, Unctad said.

Manufacturing remained the primary engine of growth, with a 10% annual increase, driven by a 14% surge in electronics linked to AI-related demand. In contrast, automotive and fossil fuel trade weakened by 4% energy dynamics shifted.

Although 2025 marked a strong recovery after two subdued years, Unctad warned that 2026 could bring slower trade growth as rising debt, elevated costs and geopolitical fragmentation continued to weigh on the global economy.