The Daily View: Tightening the rope

THE shortcomings of sanctions are sufficiently well documented for everyone to understand that naming any individual, no matter how instrumental in shadow fleet shenanigans the EU claims them to be, will not ultimately make a dramatic difference.

Cumulatively, however, these actions are worth paying attention to.

On Monday, the EU has formally pointed an accusing finger towards a handful of high-profile names they believe to be facilitators of the shadow fleet.

The legal eagles in Brussels should probably brace for some hotly worded protests.

Suffice to say that in our own dealings with the legal representatives involved, they have repeatedly and robustly challenged any suggestion that Moscow is benefitting from their client’s activities.

Regardless, it is not the response of any one lawyer the regulators are looking for here. Rather they want to see how tight they must pull the rope before others take heed.

It may have taken a while, but it does seem that harsher sanctions have finally started to raise the compliance and reputational risks associated with participating in Russia crude flows.

The latest numbers from Vortexa supports the view that there is something of a retreat in play from the flexible operators of unsanctioned tonnage — particularly Greek entities — who were previously happy to lift Russian oil.

It seems the share of voyages made by Greek-operated vessels peaked at 24% in June and has been in decline ever since.

Meanwhile, the cumulative cost of all this pressure on Russia has been building.

Russia has increased its military spending by another 30% year on year, reaching a record $149bn in the first nine months of 2025.

The war effort is now eating up about 44% of Russia’s federal tax revenue — a record high.

None of which is new news to anyone, but as the EU leaders gather this week to discuss what more they can do to add pressure, be it in terms of asset freezing or bashing Belarus, it does seem there is a growing willingness to consider all options on the table.

Reports that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban are not being baulked at.

While states are understood to be arguing the toss over how to ensure maritime services are not pushed outside the bloc if such a move was made, the fact is they are actively discussing what was once considered unthinkable — a complete ban on Russia energy.

The reality is if the EU is serious about reducing the oil revenue that helps finance Russia’s war in Ukraine, they are going to have to keep up the pressure and consider ever tighter restrictions.

This may be the point at which those still in the shadows review their risk appetite.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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