Iranian Navy Frigates Leave Bandar Abbas as Protests in Iran Intensify
While much of Western media has focused in recent days on the situation in Venezuela and connected maritime activity, protests, and sometimes violent demonstrations, which started at the end of December, have continued in Iran. Protests have affected almost all provinces, but with an emphasis on rural areas, Tehran, and the western provinces of Ilam and Lorestan bordering Iraq. As of the morning of January 8, an estimated 45 persons have been killed by security forces in these protests.
While protests have primarily been triggered by the difficult economic circumstances facing ordinary citizens, a characteristic new to the protests this year - in comparison with previous protest phases - is the open support now being expressed on the streets in favor of the restoration of Crown Prince Reza Shah. Whereas protests in the past have attacked the religious leadership of the country, the degree of popular support now being expressed for the Crown Prince is a new phenomenon. Security forces have not been able to curb the demonstrations, and appear to be concerned that use of violence to break up protests will only make matters worse.
Also evident is a collapse in confidence in the ruling religious elite, divided between those calling for dialogue with demonstrators and hardliners demanding violent suppression of protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei managed to call for both, saying that “We talk to protesters, but there is no use in talking to rioters. Rioters must be put in their place.”
A number of reports suggest that the ruling elite are beginning to move their families out of the country, based on visa applications in France and additional flights to Moscow. The Times of London quotes intelligence sources as saying that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is planning to move to Moscow with his son and 20 family members, plus whatever of the liquid assets of the estimated $95 billion held under his personal control in the Setad religious foundation that he might be able to squeeze onto the plane with him. President Donald Trump, when questioned, has said that the Supreme Leader is “looking for some place to go.”
Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor, early on January 8 (Sentinel-2/CJRC). Red: probably One Bayandor Class corvette, empty berths recently vacated by 2 x frigates. Yellow: IRINS Zagros, 1 x Bandar Class and 1 x Hengam Class replenishment ships. Orange: Kilo Class submarine IRINS Tariq. IRINS Kurdestan on outer harbor pier.
However, on the evening of January 8, and with the Iranian weekend approaching, there was a major escalation of protest activity, particularly in Isfahan, Tabriz, Gorgon, and Mashhad. In Tehran, where the protests were initiated in the Grand Bazaar, cars blocked major thoroughfares; the conservative Grand Bazaar has often been quoted as the critical barometer of support for the regime – lose support there, and you are doomed. As night fell, the authorities imposed an unprecedented nationwide internet shutdown, but now that thousands of Iranians have internet access via Starlink, this will not present an obstacle to Iranians used to overcoming such difficulties. Turkish Airlines, Qatar, and Emirates have now suspended all flights to Iran.
Bandar Abbas, home of the Iranian Navy (Nedaja), has been relatively quiet, but saw an escalation of protests on Wednesday evening, which are continuing. The Maritime Executive has been focused on activity in the naval harbor.
With the 103rd and 104th Flotillas on their way to South Africa, the naval harbor was not as full as normal when observed on January 3. But seen early on the morning of January 8, there had been an overnight departure of a number of ships. No frigates remain in the harbor, save for the intelligence collection frigate IRINSZagros (H313), which, in any case, appears to be non-operational. There is one Bayandor Class corvette present, probably IRINSNaghdi (F82), launched in Texas in 1964 and still going strong, and also the only operational Kilo Class submarine IRINSTariq (S901), another vessel of doubtful operational status. One Bandar Class replenishment tanker and one Hengam Class landing craft, normally used in a replenishment at sea role, are present, with sister ships of their classes probably supporting the long-range deployment of the 103rd and 104th Flotillas. In the outer harbor, IRINS Makran (K441) is still deployed, but IRINS Kurdestan (K442) remains on its permanent pier. A naval commander would probably judge it a good time to put all available vessels out to sea, to prevent the danger of naval personnel becoming disaffected or involved in protest activity.
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Of the IRGC Navy, only the angled-deck drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri (C-110-4) can be seen, anchored off in the Bandar Abbas roads.
The coming weekend will prove crucial in determining the course of events. With protests growing and a frightened leadership split between fanatical hardliners and those urging compromise, the protests look set to culminate in some form of regime change, particularly as the opposition now appears to be coalescing around the Crown Prince as a transitional leader.
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