OPINION | US, China could steady markets in Middle East oil crisis

China's secretive stockpiling

China’s crude-buying behaviour is also likely to play a central role in any supply disruption scenario. China, which consumed around 17 million bpd in 2025, is particularly exposed to Middle East instability.

The region accounted for roughly half of China’s 10.4 million bpd of crude imports last year, according to analytics firm Kpler. At the same time, China has absorbed a large share of global excess supply in recent years, adding an estimated 800,000 bpd to storage in 2025 alone, according to ROI calculations.

China does not publish official data on crude inventories, but analysts estimate stocks could total as much as 1.3 billion barrels - more than four months of imports - with additional storage capacity still available. The commercial dynamics behind China’s stockpiling remain opaque, but crude purchases have historically decelerated during periods of relatively high oil prices.

Beijing is likely to slow its buying in the event of a sharp price spike, easing pressure on global supplies. China could also opt to release some inventories to relieve pressure on domestic refiners.

It has conducted only one formal SPR release, in 2022, though the volume was limited. It is impossible to know exactly how the confrontation between Washington and Tehran will unfold, but any escalation is likely to push oil prices higher, and a severe disruption to Middle East oil supplies could trigger one of the biggest energy crises in decades.

Ultimately, the world’s two largest oil consumers - the US and China - hold the keys to managing such a shock.

(Ron Bousso Editing by Marguerita Choy)