The Daily View: Waiting for a strait answer

THE relative risk appetites present in shipping are becoming more pronounced and more visible by the day.

Shadow fleet vessels are dominating tanker and gas carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz as compliant tonnage largely avoids the besieged waterway.

About half of all tankers and gas carriers that have transited the strait since Iran declared the global energy chokepoint to be “closed” were part of the so-called shadow fleet, according to Lloyd’s List analysis, which included suspected dark transits.

Donald Trump’s suggestion that shipowners need to “show some guts” and start transiting the strait because the US has sunk Iran’s naval assets, has not been received well by the majority.

Creative emojis and four-letter ripostes were circulating industry chat groups in response to the US president’s suggestion that ‘guts’ should override crew security.

The only notable exception remains Dynacom principal George Procopiou, who has continued to send tankers into the gulf to load and is now defying Iranian threats by running laden tankers out through the danger zone.

For the moment he is part of a small but growing cadre of owners willing to take the risk premiums on offer.

Trump has said naval escorts could follow and it now seems that the European’s are preparing their own naval support for shipping. How and when that arrives remains to be seen.

As of Monday evening, shipping industry officials are in the dark on details regarding naval escorts of any flag.

As a result, hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the waterway as oil and shipping markets watch for any sign that the security situation improves and sailings may pick up through the narrow corridor, which handles a large share of global crude flows.

The biggest single question for global energy remains how and when the Strait of Hormuz will become safe for shipping again.

For now, we have no clear indication when that question will be answered.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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