Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes
NAVAL escorts for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would effectively cap the flow of tanker movements at just under 10% of normal volumes.
That figure could be significantly lower depending on Iran’s response and availability of naval assets. It would also be heavily contingent on any potential minesweeping operations should Iran deliver on previous threats to mine the strait.
While the US has repeatedly refused requests from the shipping industry to provide naval escorts since the Iranian conflict began on February 28, both US and European Union naval operations are being assessed.
Neither the US nor EU plans are yet at the stage of committing to a deployment of assets, however, a basic naval escort operation would need between eight to 10 destroyers to protect convoys of between five to 10 commercial vessels in each transit.
While the precise number of transits per day will be contingent on the capacity of available naval assets, multiple security agencies and experts consulted by Lloyd’s List have confirmed that a convoy scheme that clusters up to around five to 10 vessels moving under protection is the only viable option to meaningfully resume transits.
Given the length of the transit and that it will be difficult to simultaneously operate convoys in both directions given the narrowness of the strait, any escort system would severely restrict the volume of ships passing through.
Estimates vary, but the consensus across eight well-placed security experts from both naval and commercial operations indicate that a best-case scenario would see just under 10% of the normal flow of 45-50 tankers daily transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Any scheme will almost certainly first prioritise outbound transits, not least because the willingness to take the risk of transiting with US support is likely higher among owners and operators with vessels trapped in the MEG. Protection for inbound vessels would likely only be introduced gradually.
It is also likely that tankers will be given priority over all other vessels and, depending on the detail of who is running the escort service, affiliation to the countries involved in any escorts by flag, ownership, operator, management, chartering arrangements will likely play a part in prioritisation.
Whether such escorts emerge, however, remains unclear.
While US President Donald Trump’s first stated on March 3 that the US was prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway, no such escorts have materialised.
Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, on Tuesday afternoon declared that the US Navy had “successfully escorted” an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only to delete that announcement, forcing the White House to confirm that no escort had happened.
The response from US navy officials continues to be that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 9 that he would deploy 11 warships across the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, without elaborating on details of timing or mandate.
European leaders are separately assessing whether the EU naval operation Aspides, currently deployed in the Red Sea, could be used to support naval escorts. This would require member state sign off via the Political and Security Committee and Lloyd’s List understands that discussions are “very preliminary at this stage”.
Even if the operation did get political sign off, EU states are unlikely to amend its policy of only escorting vessels linked to the EU commercially or with EU-bound cargoes.
Macron did not confirm how the remaining assets will be deployed, including how many would be committed to the Strait of Hormuz for what he described as “a purely defensive, purely escort mission, which must be prepared together with both European and non-European states”. However, Macron stated that this would only occur “after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended”.
Escort capacity constrainedThe scale of any escort service is going to be constrained by both the number of available naval assets, but also the narrowness of the strait.
“We’re obviously not looking at Second World War Atlantic convoy sizes, because you’re operating in very constrained waters,” explained Mike Plunket, senior naval platforms analyst at Janes Intelligence.
“You simply can’t fit 30 tankers through at the same time, and you don’t have enough escorts available to protect them all, so I would say four or five tankers with maybe two or three escorts would be what you were looking at.”
Despite Trump’s public assessment that Iran’s naval capacity has been largely destroyed, Iran’s threat to shipping stems more from asymmetric attacks. These include the use of: anti-ship missiles, drones, fast-attack craft swarms, explosives-laden drone boats and limpet mines against vessels sailing in the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, including vessels at anchor.
“IRGC Navy units could also still be capable of targeting vessels elsewhere, particularly in the inner Middle East Gulf,” concluded one commercial security report seen by Lloyd’s List.
“A successful naval protection system does not necessarily mean a total cessation of casualties caused by Iranian attacks,” the report warned clients.
The most significant risk to an extended closure of the strait, however, remains the threat of mines.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Iran was reported to have deployed around a dozen naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially complicating efforts to reopen the crucial shipping route, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, corroborating earlier reporting by CNN and CBS.
While Lloyd’s list has been unable to independently verify the reports, Iran has long threatened to retaliate against any military attack by mining the strait.
Trump did not confirm reports that Iran was preparing to lay mines, or had started to do so, using small boats. But he warned Iran in a social media post: “If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.”
The Pentagon claimed on Wednesday that 16 mine-laying boats in the strait had been “eliminated”.
The US Navy retired four of its remaining Avenger-class vessels last year, reducing the fleet’s mine countermeasures ships to just four platforms, which themselves are scheduled to be retired by 2027.
“The Iranians have a wide selection of mines of varying levels of sophistication available to them, and they only have to sow a few in in the Middle East Gulf or in the strait and we would have to assume the whole thing’s a minefield. It only takes one mine being found, or one ship hitting a mine and then everything stops,” said Plunket.
Content Original Link:
" target="_blank">
