Iranians Feint Attack on Diego Garcia
Although the incident has been accompanied by much disinformation and confusion, it is evident that on or before March 20, Iran's IRGC attempted to fire two ballistic missiles at the US Naval Support Facility on the island of Diego Garcia in the British Indian Ocean Territory. US sources reported that one missile had been shot down by an SM-3 missile, probably launched from an Arleigh Burke destroyer, and that the second "broke up in flight." Having reached a range of 1990 miles, it looks as if the second missile could well have flown its full trajectory but did not have sufficient range to get close to even the northernmost islands of the Chagos Archipelago.
The missiles were probably fired from the Chah Bahar area, the most south-easterly of known IRGC missile bases. The missiles used are likely to have been an extended-range variant of the Khoramshahr-4, which has also been used recently to attack targets in Israel. The Khoramshahr-4 was believed hitherto to have a range of 1250 miles, but technically could achieve the 1990 mile range observed last week with modifications and by downgrading warhead payload in exchange for extra range - a process which when seen before tends to over-stress missile airframe bodies designed for shorter ranges. Israel contends that a two-stage rocket was used, floating the potential use of a Qam-100 satellite launcher, not known to have been tested with a warhead but which might have a range of 2,500 miles. Even with a range of 2,500 miles, Diego Garcia would barely be within reach of a Qam-100.
The incident is being used by both sides in the conflict for propaganda purposes. The Mehr News Agency, whose site is now down, is reported to have promoted the attack as a deterrent to European involvement in the war, warning them they could be at risk if they join in. Israel has used the same potential threat as a recruitment strategy: help destroy this developing Iranian capability, it advises Europe, or otherwise you too will become a victim.
When the Maritime Executive described the long-range threat to Diego Garcia in April last year, we noted that in addition to ballistic missiles, Iran has a long-range drone capability. Iran’s satellite-guided Shahed-129 and its Fotros long-endurance attack drones can already manage the 2,500 miles to Diego Garcia, and have proven to be highly accurate. If launched covertly from Iranian merchant vessels, which even though sanctioned can still pass through the Strait of Hormuz without hindrance, the Iranians could probably manage to barrage-fire shorter range Shahed 131 or 136 drones as well.
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The war has generated yet further obstacles, some looking quite impenetrable, to the completion of Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer's attempt to hand over sovereignty over Diego Garcia and the Chagos to Mauritius, along with annual rental payments. The UK has now realized that the UK-Mauritian agreement requires changes to the US-UK 1966 Agreement over the use of Diego Garcia, a treaty registered under international law, and for which formal US consent would thus be required.
It is highly unlikely that Diego Garcia could be used under Mauritian sovereignty in the way it is being used now, as a recovery and return launch pad for attacks on Iran. Moreover, Mauritius is currently going through a political crisis which has resulted in the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Paul Bérenger and strains within the ruling coalition, in part a consequence of budget planning which assumed rental payments would arrive from the UK (which have not currently been paid). The handover bill is currently not time-tabled for a return to Parliament, where amendments previously made will need to be reversed if the deal is to remain viable.
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