Proposals to End Gulf Conflict Align With Iranian Control of Hormuz
On Tuesday, shortly after President Donald Trump proposed leaving the Strait of Hormuz as a matter for other nations to address, China and Pakistan released a peace proposal that would provide for "normal passage" - without explicitly calling for a withdrawal of Iranian administration of the strategic waterway. Both nations have already reached initial deals with Tehran for safe transit of their vessels, acknowledging de facto Iranian supervision.
Officials have told the Wall Street Journal that Trump is open to ending U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict without first taking action to remove Iranian control over the strait, which Iran initiated this month in retaliation for U.S. attacks. In comments Tuesday, the president appeared to confirm that the strait was not an active policy concern for his administration.
"When we leave the strait will automatically open," President Trump claimed in a conversation with the New York Post. "I don’t think about it, to be honest."
Iran has given no indication that it will give up authority over the waterway voluntarily. It has declared sovereignty over the strait, and it demands international recognition of its claim as a condition for a ceasefire. Its parliament has passed a bill formalizing regulations for administering the strait; it has partially mined the waterway to deter transits outside of an Iranian-controlled lane; and it has set up a "tollbooth" between the islands of Qeshm and Larak, reportedly charging up to $2 million per passage for safe transit rights. AIS data confirms that nearly all of the visible traffic through the strait is now using this tolling arrangement. Beyond charging for transit and blockading U.S. tonnage, Iran is rolling out day-to-day administrative controls, like diverting ships to anchor for permit checks.
In a social media message Monday morning, Trump suggested that future access to the strait would be up to the nations most dependent upon it. "Build up some delayed courage, go to the strait, and just take it," the president wrote. "Go get your own oil!"
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A U.S. withdrawal would raise the prospect of permanent Iranian control on a pay-per-transit basis. Almost all of the oil passing Hormuz goes to Asian buyers; just four percent is purchased by European customers, who have access to other alternatives and little physical exposure to Gulf oil terminals.
China - diplomatically aligned with Iran - is by far the most dependent upon oil shipped through the strait, which carries about 40 percent of Chinese crude imports. Chinese shipping interests have already reached an agreement with "relevant parties" for limited use of the waterway, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Tuesday - a tacit acceptance of a new status quo of Iranian control.
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