Shipping Waits and Watches Strait of Hormuz in First Hours of Ceasefire
While welcoming the news of the announced two-week ceasefire, the shipping industry is remaining cautious and seeking more clarity before ships rush to the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts, however, also caution that they do not expect a mass exodus and further that it is unlikely to see shipping return to the Persian Gulf for some time to come.
Donald Trump, in announcing the ceasefire, emphasized in all capital letters his demands for the Strait of Hormuz. He wrote that the agreement to suspend the bombing and attack was “subject to” an agreement from Iran for the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” This came after earlier reports had implied that Trump was willing to end the conflict without a final resolution over the Strait of Hormuz and his assertion that the United States did not need the oil from the Gulf.
Iran quickly increased its torrent of propaganda, with sometimes conflicting statements, but its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, quickly set out terms for the Strait of Hormuz. He said during the two weeks, passage would “be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and due consideration to technical limits.”
Unconfirmed reports from Associated Press and others are saying that Iran and Oman can charge fees for the transit. The Chief Safety & Security Officer of the trade group BIMCO, Jakob Larsen, cautioned, “Iran still has significant amounts of weapons to control shipping through the Strait, including antiship missile, drones, fast attack craft, coastal artillery, and mines.”
Industry analyst Lars Jensen noted there was no immediate rush toward the Strait of Hormuz. The first four hours after the announcement, he pointed out, “have not yet led to any change in the pattern of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” Tracking data, however, appeared to show a Greek-owned bulker and a Liberia-flagged bulker making the transit. Two other bulkers also appeared to be moving toward the Strait, including one departing Saudi Arabia.
Trump returned to social media on Wednesday morning, writing, “The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” but provided no details.
Ten hours later: We're not seeing much happening.
Left: Unfiltered view of all vessel traffic on AIS. Green icons are bulk/cargo, container ships while red are tankers.
Right: Filtered view showing vessels which began their voyage in Iran.#OOTT#IranWar#Tankerspic.twitter.com/LdWaGjdGZl
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 8, 2026
“An immediate return to freedom of navigation is now essential, and states should work with shipping to ensure orderly and unimpeded transits through the Strait,” Thomas Kazakos, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping. “This will require coordination between industry and nation states from both inside and outside the Gulf region.”
The International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez reported that the IMO was “already working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”
There are no clear numbers on how many ships remain trapped in the region. Bloomberg put the number at more than 800 vessels stranded inside the Persian Gulf, while AXSMarine reported there were 959 vessels west of Hormuz and a total of 1,441 merchant vessels on both sides of the Strait as of April 8. Some reports say it remains over 2,000 vessels.
“The shipping industry is currently awaiting technical details from the U.S. and from Iran on how to transit the Strait of Hormuz,” commented BIMCO’s Larsen. He also noted, “If too many ships attempt to transit at once, due to the confined nature of the Strait of Hormuz, there is a heightened risk of navigational hazards like groundings or collision.”
Among the major shipping companies, Maersk told Reuters that the ceasefire “could open some opportunities,” but that it did not have “enough security certainty to resume normal operations.” NYK told Bloomberg it will “closely monitor the situation.”
The shipping companies will also need clearance from their insurance companies before they move toward the Strait. Insurers are reported to be looking for similar details and assurances of safety.
"For the hundreds of seafarers of all nationalities caught in the middle of this crisis, this announcement will bring real and immediate relief, that must now be translated into safe, orderly, and guaranteed transit through the Strait. That has to be the priority,” said Stephen Cotton, ITF General Secretary.
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Reports are that Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO, Rolf Habben-Jensen, told customers this morning it was too early to judge how much traffic would be able to pass through the Strait. Further, he cautioned it would take at least six weeks to restore network operations. Hapag-Lloyd has six ships caught in the region.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, also cautioned, “Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf. Partly because many ships have already sailed to other regions and partly because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes.” He also noted that oil exports will be impacted for some time as production needs to be restarted at several fields and as damage to infrastructure needs to be repaired.
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