Capital Economics estimated Greece’s benefit from the (NGEU) recovery program at
Capital Economics estimated Greece’s benefit from the (NGEU) recovery program at 1.5% of GDP over its six-year implementation period, noting that the funds have served as a significant driver of investment, particularly in the digital and green sectors.
Although the program alone does not fully explain the recent performance of the economies involved, Capital Economics considers it an important source of support for economic activity. Established in 2020 and running through 2026, the initiative includes the (RRF), with a total envelope of up to €725 billion — roughly 4% of the European Union’s GDP.
While the program is set to conclude in 2026, its effects are expected to extend into the following years, helping to prevent a “hard landing” in investment activity.
Countries most affected by the pandemic — including Greece, Spain and Italy — received the largest share of grants. Data show that investment in Greece rose by 70% between the end of 2019 and the second quarter of 2025, compared with a 37% increase in Italy and just 6% across the eurozone as a whole.
In broader terms, Capital Economics notes that the overall impact of the RRF on growth has been relatively modest. (ECB) estimates suggest
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