Myriad Moves: Traders Flip Bearish on Bitcoin, Favor Ethereum Over Gold

In brief

Predictors on Myriad are becoming more bearish in Thursday trading as crypto markets slide.
Solana is given just 34% odds by predictors of reaching a new all-time high.
Despite gold's lead in the race to $5K, Myriad users think ETH has a better chance of reaching the mark first.

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As crypto markets fall further on Thursday, predictors on Myriad are still putting their money where their mouths are.

Tightly contested markets on the platform have seen recent swings, particularly as users consider Bitcoin’s next stop, Solana’s chances for a new all-time high, and the race to $5,000 that’s brewing between Ethereum and Gold.

Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Bitcoin’s next move: $120K or dip to $100K?

Market Open: October 12
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $149K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Bitcoin's next hit: $120K or dip to $100K" market on Myriad

The biggest crypto liquidation of all time wiped out $19 billion worth of positions last week, sending BTC tumbling below $106,000 for a time before it rebounded back above $110,000. Now changing hands at $1o8,673, predictors on Myriad are asked where it’s headed next—$120,000 or $100,000.

Inspired by a bet between crypto personalities Mando and KeyboardMonkey, the market has see-sawed back and forth in the last 24 hours, briefly flipping in each direction as predictors are largely split and uncertain about Bitcoin’s immediate future.

In Thursday trading, predictors have flipped from bullish to bearish, at one point giving $120,000 around a 55% chance of hitting. But as Bitcoin dropped further, odds flipped to favor the $100K side which now is favored at 54%.

A recent Glassnode report indicates that a deeper contraction is at risk if BTC stays on the lower end of the $108,000-$117,000 range. The top crypto asset is hanging there for now as trade war uncertainty lingers.

Bitcoin will need to rise around 10.5% higher to hit $120,000—a move that would pay bullish predictors on Myriad closer to 53% for their positions. On the other hand, a further correction of around 8% will pay out about 46% based on current probabilities.

What’s Next? President Trump is scheduled to speak at 3:00pm ET today, potentially impacting crypto and broader markets.

New Solana all-time high by year end?

Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 30
Volume: $139K
Link: See the latest odds on the "New Solana ATH by Year End?" market on Myriad

Solana has been underperforming its major crypto peers, dropping more than 13% in the last week and changing hands at $190.50 on Thursday afternoon.

Despite some calls for an “epic end of year,” SOL is dipping further away from a new all-time high—and Myriad predictors are feeling less confident as well.

Odds of a new SOL all-time high before the end of the year have dropped more than 16% in the last week, as it now stands 35% off its January top of $293.

That represents a significant detraction from this time last month, when odds in favor climbed as high as 68%.

The sixth-largest crypto asset has been unable to escape the pulldown of the broader crypto market, but has also had its nearest term catalyst—approval of Solana ETFs—frozen as a result of the government shutdown.

With DAT accumulations slowing and no ETF inflows in sight (just yet), predictors put the odds of a new all-time high at just 34% at the time of writing.

What’s Next? The government shutdown is likely playing a role in delaying expected Solana ETF approvals.

Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?

Market Open: October 15
Market Close: Until resolution
Volume: $5.96K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Gold versus ETH: Which hits $5K first?” market on Myriad

Gold bugs are rejoicing as the asset continues to move higher, pushing north of $4,300 as it charges towards the $5,000 mark. That move has provided Myriad predictors with a new market which sets gold alongside ETH in the race to $5,000, asking which asset will hit the milestone first.

Trading around $4,307, gold has a significant headstart on ETH, but predictors on Myriad actually prefer ETH’s chances at reaching $5,000 first—placing odds around 53% in favor of ETH as of Thursday morning.

As it stands now, ETH will need around a 25.5% move higher to hit $5,000. Meanwhile, gold only needs around a 16% boost to resolve the market.

But market participants are not dismayed, even as individuals are lining up around the block to buy gold while net ETH ETF flows are negative on the week.

In the early morning hours Thursday, gold was a slight favorite on Myriad, but only reached as high as 52%. Since that time, odds have swung back around 8.5% to favor ETH.

Analysts told Decrypt this week that the “debasement trade,” or the move to hard assets to hedge against fiat currency inflations, may have another decade ahead of it.

As it gains speed, will gold be able to maintain its edge against Ethereum?

What’s Next? ETH has fallen further from $5,000 while gold moves up another 2% in early Thursday trading.