Conflict between Israel and Iran would ‘most certainly’ close the Strait of Hormuz
ANY conflict between Israel and Iran would likely render the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer Jakob Larsen said.
Tensions are rising in the region as negotiations between Iran and the US continue over the former’s nuclear programme.
But yesterday evening, the US issued orders for some staff at its embassy in Baghdad to evacuate, as well as dependents of Department of Defense staff in Bahrain. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the decision was made as part of a regular review of American personnel abroad.
Yet US broadcaster CBS reported the real reason for the evacuation was an imminent Israeli strike on Iran.
Any clash between the two “would be of the greatest concern to shipping in the Middle East Gulf and adjacent waters”, Larsen said.
“While the most likely scenario might not directly impact shipping, any attack will have a certain potential to escalate and impact shipping, as well as implicate military forces of other countries operating in the area, including the US.
“A full-blown armed conflict between Israel/the US and Iran would most certainly effectively close the Strait of Hormuz at least for a period of time and drive up oil prices.”
Security sources have pointed out that there is currently no direct threat to shipping, but in a region where situations can escalate extremely quickly, mariners are being urged to exercise caution when transiting though the Middle East Gulf and surrounding waters.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping arteries. In 2023, one in five barrels of oil was shipped through the strait. Any disruption to that flow would see crude prices skyrocket.
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