DNV 2050 Forecast Points to New Fuel Supply Challenges

New insights from DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 indicate that the number of alternative-fuel-capable vessels in operation is set to almost double by 2028.

By 2030, the alternative-fuelled fleet will be able to burn up to 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels annually, double the estimated volume needed to meet the IMO 2030 emissions target.

Yet today, actual consumption of low-GHG fuels remains at just 1 Mtoe.

The widening gap between capacity and use highlights both the scale of industry commitment and the urgent need for fuel producers and infrastructure developers to accelerate supply to match the fleet’s readiness, says DNV.

“The industry has made real technical progress in recent years,” said Eirik Ovrum, lead author of the report. “But these solutions are still operating in silos. To deliver impact, they need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized in compliance frameworks. That’s where the next phase of work must focus.”

The report highlights the different advances being made based on fuel type. There are 1,539 vessels in operation that can run on bio-LNG or e-LNG, compared to three vessels capable of operating on blue ammonia or e-ammonia.

Global annual production