After US-Iran war ceasefire, shipowners not rushing for Hormuz return

Shipping companies have welcomed the news of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that could open some opportunities for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but they are not rushing for the exit yet.

Danish shipping giant Maersk has stated that the recent two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran could create transit opportunities, but the agreement does not yet provide full maritime certainty.

“At this point, we are taking a cautious approach, and we are not making any changes to specific services,” the shipping company said.

In a statement, Maersk said any decision to resume operations in the waterway would depend on ongoing risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and guidance from relevant authorities and partners.

Maersk cautious on Hormuz shipping despite US-Iran ceasefire

The company stressed that it is maintaining a cautious stance and has not made any changes to its services, underscoring the volatile situation in the region.

“Information and details available remain very limited and we are working with urgency to obtain further clarity. We will continue to monitor developments closely and provide updates as greater clarity emerges over the coming days,” it said.

Container shipping line Hapag-Lloyd voiced cautious optimism on Wednesday on the current assessment of the situation in the Middle East.

The announcement has been welcomed by nations and global markets, but some experts have cast doubt on its viability and whether it will immediately undo the damage already caused.

“It is good news that there appears to have been some progress in the negotiations between the US and Iran. Nevertheless, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Whether the announced opening will actually hold will become clear in the coming days,” Hapag-Lloyd wrote in a note published Wednesday.

Hapag-Lloyd currently refraining from transiting the strait

Based on the company’s current risk assessment, Hapag-Lloyd is currently refraining from transiting the strait. At the same time, the container line said is continuously assessing when a passage will once again be possible.

Shipping traffic will be permitted through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week truce, Iran has said, provided these transits are coordinated by its armed forces and that the U.S. fulfills its own ceasefire obligations.

Doubts over ceasefire viability

Both sides are proclaiming victory in the truce, but doubts linger over its viability and whether it will result in an end to the conflict.

Trump has described Iran’s 10-point proposal a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” and said that the two-week pause in fighting will allow the agreement “to be finalized and consummated.”

During the two weeks, Trump added that the U.S. would “be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Despite the ceasefire the security situation remains strained – Strait of Hormuz transit is down more than 90% and the next days will be critical.

Meanwhile, costs have increased significantly for bunker, insurance, operational adjustments, inland transport or container handling and haulage, etc.

Xeneta: Ceasefire will not restore container shipping operations to pre-conflict conditions

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire will not restore container shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict conditions, with ocean supply chain disruption and elevated rates expected to continue.

Analysts at Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform – expect carriers to take a cautious approach to the ceasefire. Alternative routings into the Gulf region, such as landbridges from Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Jeddah, will remain in place while carriers simultaneously carry out individual test voyages via Strait of Hormuz.

Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand said: “The ceasefire should come with a dose of reality because there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normality for container shipping in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz transits are likely to increase but how this transition is managed is yet to be seen because two weeks is a very short window of opportunity and there is no guarantee the ceasefire will hold.

“The conflict has displaced 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity and carriers have put a lot of effort and expense into establishing alternative routings to allow goods to flow into the region. You do not suddenly toss that out of the window because there is a two-week ceasefire.”

Control of Strait of Hormuz

Sand also warned control of the Strait of Hormuz will have a long-term impact on container shipping in the region.

He said: “There are huge operational question marks over a return to the Strait of Hormuz if it effectively turns into an Iranian tollbooth. How much will it cost? How will transits and payments be managed and will this delay carriers returning services to the region? Could some ships be denied transit even if they are willing to pay? This kind of uncertainty is not good for supply chains.”

ICS: States should work with shipping to ensure orderly and unimpeded Hormuz transits

For the maritime industry, the message is very clear: the Strait of Hormuz may be reopened, but orderly and unimpeded transits through the Strait will depend on coordination between industry and nation states from both inside and outside the Gulf region.

“We welcome the conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran and hope this signals a beginning of a return to stability in the region,” said Thomas A. Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping.

“This news will be a relief to the 20,000 seafarers who have been at the forefront of this crisis. Our thoughts remain with those civilians and seafarers who have already been injured or sadly lost their lives,” he continued.

“An immediate return to freedom of navigation is now essential, and states should work with shipping to ensure orderly and unimpeded transits through the Strait. This will require coordination between industry and nation states from both inside and outside the Gulf region and ICS is willing to assist this process in any way we can,” Kazakos concluded.