A new report from Wood Mackenzie, "Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times", presents three futures for the global energy landscape, highlighting the far-reaching implications of ongoing trade tensions for the energy
A new report from Wood Mackenzie,"Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times", presents three futures for the global energy landscape, highlighting the far-reaching implications of ongoing trade tensions for the energy and natural resources sectors.
The report presents three possible outlooks for the global energy and natural resources industries - Trade Truce (the most optimistic), Trade Tensions (the most likely) and Trade War (the worst outcome) – each painting a dramatically different picture for global GDP, industrial production and the supply, demand, and price of oil, gas/LNG, renewable power and metals through 2030.
“The current uncertainty around the tariff landscape is reshaping the energy and natural resources sectors,” said Gavin Thompson, vice chairman, of energy at Wood Mackenzie. "Lower economic growth will curb energy demand, prices and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to LNG. Energy leaders must now become masters of scenario planning, preparing for everything from continued growth to significant market disruptions.”
Key findings from the report include:
- Oil markets: Oil demand in 2030 varies by up to 6.9 million barrels per day between scenarios. In the Trade Truce scenario, oil demand reaches 108 million b/d by 2030, with Brent averaging US$74/bbl.
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