"We estimate that the dry bulk supply/demand balance will strengthen slightly in 2025 and gradually weaken in 2026 and 2027. Cargo demand growth is slowing, as coal shipments decline and iron ore
"We estimate that the dry bulk supply/demand balance will strengthen slightly in 2025 and gradually weaken in 2026 and 2027. Cargo demand growth is slowing, as coal shipments decline and iron ore shipments stagnate,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Coal shipments are forecast to decline 4.9% between 2025 and 2027. Demand is falling as electricity generation from renewable sources continues to expand, particularly in China, Europe and India. Furthermore, the global steel demand outlook is weak, contributing to limited demand for iron ore and coking coal.
“A weakening in market conditions could lead to lower freight rates and second-hand prices, though these could differ by segment. The capesize segment is expected to remain more resilient, supported by limited fleet growth and longer sailing distances. In contrast, the panamax and supramax segments may face higher pressure from higher deliveries amid limited cargo demand growth,” says Gouveia.
The global economic outlook has improved since our last update, supporting dry bulk demand, though it remains weaker than a year ago. In China, growth is projected to slow in 2026 and 2027 compared to 2025, driven by its lingering property sector crisis and excess manufacturing capacity.
Overall, ship demand is forecast
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