“We estimate that coal shipments to advanced economies will fall 2% y/y in 2025, reaching a 23-year low. This will be the third consecutive annual drop although the pace of decline has
“We estimate that coal shipments to advanced economies will fall 2% y/y in 2025, reaching a 23-year low. This will be the third consecutive annual drop although the pace of decline has slowed compared to previous years. The contraction is primarily driven by weaker coking coal demand due to reduced steel production,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Between January and October, global steel production fell 2.1% y/y according to the World Steel Association. Advanced economies which rely on coking coal imports showed a pronounced weakening with production falling 3.4% y/y in the EU, 4.1% y/y in Japan and 3.6% y/y in South Korea. Consequently, coking coal shipments to advanced economies fell 10% y/y.
Between 2022 and 2024, thermal coal shipments to these economies fell 30% but surprisingly, they have risen 1% y/y so far in 2025, driven by stronger shipments to the EU during the start of the year. Electricity demand rose in Germany and the Netherlands, while electricity generation from wind and hydro power fell. Shipments to Japan and Korea remained stable as higher electricity demand from AI data centres and semiconductors manufacturing offset growing electricity generation from renewable sources.
“Advanced economies are expected to be
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