Lessons learned for professionals: Understanding and embracing change
In his insightful TEDx Talk “The Psychology of Your Future Self,” psychologist Dan Gilbert delves into a paradox of human perception: We recognize that change happens in our lives, but we consistently underestimate how much change lies ahead.
Dan Gilbert is a professor of psychology at Harvard University, best known for his research on affective forecasting: how people predict their future emotional states. He is the author of the bestselling book Stumbling on Happiness (2006), which explores the science of happiness and human decision-making.
The decisions we make today, Gilbert argues, often seem puzzling or even regrettable to our future selves. This pattern is driven by a fundamental misconception about time and personal evolution.
Why future regret is so common
Gilbert opens with a compelling observation: at every stage of life, people make decisions that their future selves often regret. Teenagers pay for tattoos that adults later remove. Young adults rush into marriages that middle-aged adults rush to dissolve.
So why do we do this? Gilbert believes it is because we misunderstand the power of time. We act as if who we are now is essentially who we will always be. This leads to decisions based on present preferences, values, and identities that do not account for how dramatically those things might change.
According to Gilbert, most people believe that moment is “now,” no matter how old they are. That belief, he explains, is part of what he calls the end of history illusion. This is the idea that we have finally become the people we were meant to be, and that change, from here on out, will be minimal.
The research: What people get wrong
To investigate this illusion, Gilbert and his colleagues conducted large-scale studies asking thousands of people about how much they believed they had changed over the past 10 years and how much they expected to change over the next 10.
The findings were consistent. People of all ages, from 18 to 68, underestimated how much change they would experience in the future. For example, 18-year-olds predicted they would change very little by age 28. However, 28-year-olds reported having changed quite a bit since they were 18. This pattern held across values, preferences, and personality traits.
Why does this illusion persist?
Gilbert suggests it may come down to cognitive ease. We find it much easier to remember the past than to imagine the future. Remembering who we were 10 years ago is straightforward. Imagining who we will be 10 years from now is harder.
As Gilbert warns, “When people say, ‘I can’t imagine that,’ they’re usually talking about their own lack of imagination, not about the unlikelihood of the event.”
Gilbert concludes with a powerful truth. “Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they’re finished.” The present, he notes, always feels like a defining moment, the point at which we have finally become our true selves. But in reality, we are always evolving. The person you are now is just as temporary as all the versions of you that came before.
If there is one message to take from Gilbert’s talk, it is this: the only constant in life is change. And by acknowledging that, we might just make better decisions not only for the people we are today, but for the people we are still becoming.
Tips for addressing and understanding change
Taking maritime professionals as an example, by embracing the inevitability of future shifts, they can proactively design systems, training paths and career frameworks that remain resilient and adaptable.
At the individual level
At the individual level, embracing change means cultivating a mindset of continuous learning and adaptability. The rapid pace of technological innovation, from AI-driven navigation systems to handling alternative fuels, demands constant upskilling. But it’s not just technical abilities that must evolve; emotional resilience, collaborative capacity, and openness to feedback are just as crucial.
Individuals can take steps to address progress and monitor developments to stay ahead. These steps include:
- Schedule learning time: Dedicate time each week to learning and keeping up with the latest developments. Whether it’s reading industry blogs, taking micro-courses, or listening to relevant podcasts.
- Stay technically updated: Set up alerts or follow newsletters (e.g., on AI trends, software updates, or sustainability practices) to stay informed on tools and technologies impacting your role.
- Seek feedback actively: Don’t wait for official reviews but regularly ask teammates or supervisors, “What’s one thing I could improve on?”
- Practice a growth mindset: When facing setbacks, reframe them as “learning labs.” Ask: What did I discover, and how can I apply it next time?
At a team level
On a team level, change can be a catalyst for growth. Effective teams develop cultures where experimentation is encouraged, and failure is viewed as a step in learning.
Leaders play a critical role here: When teams understand that uncertainty is part of the process, they can respond to change with coordination rather than chaos.
Furthermore, when the change they have achieved so far gets treated as an achievement rather than a given, individuals can be more ensured in their professional skills and capabilities. Thus, leaders can take the following steps to guide their teams:
- Ask powerful questions: Instead of giving directives, ask: What do you think? What are we missing? How can we improve this together?
- Recognize growth, not just results: Publicly appreciate when a team member stretches outside their comfort zone, even if the outcome wasn’t perfect.
- Celebrate wins: Recognize progress during the journey to boost morale and confidence.
- Make change visible: Maintain a “change wall” or digital dashboard that tracks innovations, adaptations, or team growth moments.
Looking forward
Dan Gilbert’s insights into the psychology of our future selves offer a powerful reminder that change is not just possible, it’s inevitable. For professionals, especially in dynamic sectors like maritime, recognizing this truth is a strategic imperative.
Whether at the individual or leadership level, embracing change means more than accepting uncertainty: it means planning for it, learning from it, and building systems that thrive within it.
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