US Pressure on India Could Propel Russia's Shadow Oil Exports

Donald Trump is putting more pressure on India to slash its Russian oil purchases. This could deprive Moscow of vital revenue, but it will mostly just push more Russian oil into an increasingly large shadow market.

The U.S. president said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, an agreement India has yet to confirm.

India has become a major trade buyer of Russian oil since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It purchased 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s crude in the first nine months of 2025, 40% of its total exports, according to the International Energy Agency.

This U.S. pressure on New Delhi comes as Kyiv has been striking Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Moreover, Trump appears to be focused once again on resolving the conflict in Ukraine after negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. He announced last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be meeting for another summit after a “successful” phone call.

This all suggests that we may be entering a new stage in the West’s efforts to squeeze the Kremlin, so barring a breakthrough at the upcoming summit, the pressure on India to trim its Russian