Russia may be forced to reduce its oil production in the coming months as U.S. sanctions restrict access to tankers needed for exports to Asia, while Ukrainian drone attacks continue to damage
Russia may be forced to reduce its oil production in the coming months as U.S. sanctions restrict access to tankers needed for exports to Asia, while Ukrainian drone attacks continue to damage key refineries.
Last month, the U.S. imposed sanctions targeting 180 Russian tankers, coinciding with an escalation in Ukrainian drone strikes aimed at strengthening Kyiv’s bargaining position. These developments come amid growing expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump will pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Trump has indicated that ending the conflict is a top priority, with the potential for additional sanctions if progress is not made.
According to three Russian oil executives who spoke anonymously to Reuters, Russia will likely have no choice but to curb oil output. A combination of falling exports, reduced refining capacity, and limited storage — some of which has been targeted by Ukrainian drones — has created a crude glut that can only be managed through production cuts.
Russian oil production could fall below 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming months, with deeper cuts possible if tanker shortages and refining outages persist. Already, crude exports from Russia's key western ports — Primorsk,
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