Red Sea Shipping Activity Rises 60% Post-Ceasefire, Yet Remains Below Pre-Conflict Norms

A recent publication by times News highlights a critically important uptick in maritime activity within the Red Sea, with daily ship traffic surging by approximately 60% as August 2024. Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, who oversees the European Union’s Aspides naval mission, reports that the number of vessels now ranges from 36 to 37 each day.

However, this increase is still a far cry from the pre-conflict levels of 72 to 75 ships per day that were common before Yemen’s Houthi rebels escalated their attacks in November 2023. The recent rise can be attributed to a decrease in missile and drone strikes from the Houthis and a ceasefire agreement brokered between the U.S.and this Iran-backed group.

Gryparis shared insights with reuters about how ship traffic plummeted to just 20-23 vessels daily at one point last year amid heightened tensions. The Houthi attacks were largely triggered by Israel’s military actions in Gaza,which led them to target commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea.Interestingly, as November 2024, there have been no recorded assaults on commercial ships; rather, Houthi efforts have focused on Israeli-affiliated vessels—those flying Israeli flags or linked to israeli ports.

Gryparis noted that if a vessel does not meet these criteria, it has over a 99% chance of avoiding an attack. Still, he cautioned against assuming complete safety for all maritime operations.

The Aspides mission was initially launched to safeguard navigation through this vital trade corridor connecting Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. In February of this year,its scope expanded further—to include monitoring illegal arms shipments and Russian oil transport under international sanctions.Since its inception, Aspides has provided close escort for nearly 476 ships while successfully intercepting threats: downing 18 drones and four ballistic missiles along with neutralizing two remote-controlled attack boats as reported by Gryparis.Currently operating with only two or three escort vessels at any given time poses challenges; delays for ships awaiting protection can stretch up to a week due to limited resources. There are discussions about increasing EU support for additional escorts—upwards of ten more ships could enhance operational capabilities considerably.

Considering these developments last month,former President Donald Trump remarked that an end might be near for shipping disruptions in the Red Sea after claims surfaced regarding Houthi agreements not to target vessels if U.S. strikes ceased against them.Despite such optimistic statements from political leaders like Trump, major shipping companies remain wary about resuming normal operations through these waters anytime soon—a sentiment echoed during recent earnings calls where operators expressed caution regarding future transits through this critical region.