FEATURE | The Italian job: how Rome plans to cook the books to meet NATO spending hike

"The real challenge for Meloni is not the amount but the timing," said Francesco Galietti, Founder of Rome-based political risk think-tank Policy Sonar.

In 2027 Italy will also be able to fully tap the EU's fiscal leeway "escape clause", provided it gets its deficit below three per cent of GDP in 2026 as planned.

For this reason, Rome successfully lobbied NATO allies to avoid a minimum annual defence spending increase being imposed, an official with knowledge of the negotiations said, adding that Rome was also instrumental in delaying the five per cent target year to 2035 from a previously planned 2032.

"The message is clear, Italy will do what it must to meet its NATO commitments, but it will do so in its own time," Galietti said.

(Additional reporting by Alvise Armellini, graphic by Sara Rossi, Editing by Gareth Jones)