OPINION | Building confidence in Australia's submarine pathway

With no published timelines, even loyal supporters are left wondering whether Canberra can meet its AUKUS obligations, first hosting SRF-West, then taking delivery of an Australian-flagged Virginia-class boat in 2032.

Our credibility problem is hardly new: the public and industry still recall years of slipped schedules and blown budgets in naval shipbuilding and infrastructure.

The 2020 force structure plan flagged the need for a second drydock in Western Australia, an urgency only amplified by AUKUS, yet five years and two governments later, we still lack a start date. Drydocks are neither cheap nor quick to build, but they are essential if we hope to maintain nuclear-powered submarines on home soil.

Meanwhile, the promised east coast submarine base has vanished from the agenda. Although not critical to the AUKUS pathway, submarine access to both the Indian and Pacific Oceans is central to any credible Australian maritime strategy.

Shipbuilding and sustainment are hardly healthier. Both Royal Australian Navy replenishment ships have been idle since 2024 with engine and shaft failures, and an ANAO audit says the landing helicopter docks suffer “ongoing deficiencies” and “critical failures” thanks to poor contract management.

The first 1,640-tonne Arafura-class offshore-patrol vessel took three-and-a-half years to move from launch (December 2021) to commissioning (June 2025), an extraordinary pause for such a simple platform. Steel for the Hunter-class frigates was cut in 2024, yet the lead ship is not due until 2032 because Canberra will not expedite the program.

Meanwhile, the Collins-class submarine life-of-type extension looks increasingly unlikely to proceed as originally scoped, if it proceeds at all.