Russia Suspends Red Sea Base Plans as Sudan War Rages

Russia claims to have suspended its plans to establish a naval base in Sudan, ending its hopes for a presence “east of Suez.”

The Kremlin initially brokered the deal to build the naval base back in 2017 during then-dictator Omar al-Bashir’s rule. Ratification of the deal stalled after the ongoing civil war in Sudan broke out in 2023; however, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which controls Port Sudan, early this year indicated that there were no obstacles to setting up the Russian base.

But with the war intensifying between SAF and the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Russia sees little hope in building the base in the near future. In a recent interview with local media, Russian Ambassador to Sudan Andrey Chernovol said that Sudan is unlikely to ratify the agreement for the base anytime soon.

“Given the current military conflict, progress on this issue is currently suspended,” said Chernovol.

The worst of the fighting is in the country's central and western regions, but the northeast is not immune. In May, a large-scale drone attack on a Sudanese naval base near Port Sudan demonstrated that the RSF (with its foreign backing) has the reach to damage infrastructure at Russia's future base site.

For Russia, the suspension of the base deal is a major setback as the country hoped to secure a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean. In addition, the base would have been Russia’s first naval base in Africa since the Soviet era. The location of Port Sudan in the Red Sea region was attractive to Russia, given its strategic position near the Suez Canal, a critical global maritime chokepoint.

But even if base construction were to proceed in Sudan, the Russian Navy is currently resource-constrained owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine. One of the signs is the waning presence of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea. At one point in 2018, Russia had at least two submarines and ten surface ships patrolling the Mediterranean waters. In the past few months, Russian naval assets in the region have been the lowest in years, often consisting of just a single Kilo-class submarine supported by a surveillance vessel.

The drop has been attributed to the loss of Russia’s strategic port in Tartus, Syria, which provided critical resupply and repair services for the Mediterranean Flotilla. Instead, Russia has shifted its naval assets to bolster its presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic.