Data shows attacks on ships in the Middle East do not follow a pattern but aim to disrupt commercial shipping
ATTACKS on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz appears to be random and calibrated towards disruption rather than targeting specific profiles and national affiliation.
Lloyd’s List’s review of ownership, management and trading history behind each of the 16 vessels hit in the Middle East Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict on February 28, reveals no discernible pattern of targeting, so far.
However, with both India and China talking directly with Tehran about the prospect of allowing ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a move towards risk profiling of ships on the basis of national affiliation could yet follow.
India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar told the Financial Times on Sunday that negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran which allowed for two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the strait on Saturday were an example of what diplomacy could bring.
“I am at the moment engaged in talking to them and my talking has yielded some results,” he said in an interview. “This is ongoing. If it is yielding results for me, I would naturally continue to look at it.”
While there remains no direct correlation with the profile of ships hit so far with those that have passed through the strait despite security concerns, if some ships are to be allowed passage on the basis of national affiliation, that will require attacks to be filtered on the basis of ship profiling.
According to Lloyd’s List data, 10 vessels were hit between March 1 and 6, and six vessels were targeted between March 11 and 13, in various locations.
In the first week of the conflict, attacks were mostly focused on the Strait of Hormuz (four ships) and the Gulf of Oman (four ships). Most of these ships that were attacked in the Gulf of Oman were off Fujairah.
There were only two attacks in the Middle East Gulf, one was at Khalifa Bin Salman Port of Bahrain and the other one was Basrah oil terminal.
Meanwhile after March 11, five of the six ships that were targeted were in the Middle East Gulf, three of them off the UAE ports and two off Iraq in the north of the Gulf.
One vessel was hit while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz towards the Indian port of Kandla.
Thailand-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree (IMO: 9323649) was transiting the Strait of Hormuz when it was struck by two projectiles, owner Precious Shipping said in a statement, damaging the vessel’s engine room and causing a fire.
Only one of the ships, 11,200 dwt chemical tanker Skylight (IMO: 9330020) — which was hit in the first days of the war — is sanctioned and a member of Iran’s shadow fleet*.
Skylight was sailing eastbound towards the Strait of Hormuz in ballast position when it was hit by a projectile.
One of the ships that was targeted by Iran is a tug boat, Abu Dhabi Ports-operated Mussafah 2 (IMO: 9522051), that was sent to assist a containership hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz.
Within the rest of the 15 vessels that were hit, eight were laden or partially laden while seven were in ballast position, which shows us that Iranian attacks do not target ships specifically for their cargo.
The aim is ‘to underline that nobody is really safe’
Those 16 vessels that were hit during the conflict had 12 different flags, one of them has the US flag, three Marshall Islands and two of them are Malta-flagged.
On March 2, US-flagged product tanker Stena Imperative (IMO: 9666077) was struck by projectiles in Bahrain. A fire on board the tanker, which is part of the US’ Tanker Security Program, has been extinguished.
Stena Imperative was approached in early February while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps with two boats and an Iranian Mohajer drone, who were threatening the tanker to “board and seize” the vessel.
“Guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul (DDG 74) was operating in the area and immediately responded to the scene to escort Stena Imperative with defensive air support from the US Air Force,” Centcom spokesman Capt Tim Hawkins told Lloyd’s List in a statement.
Most of the vessels that were hit are operated by United Arab Emirates companies while two of them by US shipping companies. The second biggest number when it comes to the countries of the operators is Greece; three ships that were targeted are operated by Greek companies.
The 73,976 dwt crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu (IMO: 9327009) and the 50,155 dwt combined chemical and oil tanker Zefyros (IMO: 9515917) were targeted in the same attack on March 12 while anchored in Iraqi territorial waters. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, Safesea Vishnu is beneficially owned by US-based Safesea Group, while Zefyros is beneficially owned by Greece’s George & Vassilis Michael family group of companies.
Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels said that since there were some vessels that were closely linked to the US, some thought that Iran might be targeting US-linked ships.
However, the operators of the ships hit are from nine different countries, including Spain, Japan, Thailand and Denmark, China and India, and do not follow a pattern.
“Otherwise it was very likely pretty random so far to underline the threat and that nobody is really safe,” Dirk Siebels told Lloyd’s List.
Of 16 ships, 13 of them are over 10,000 dwt and nine of them are tankers (four crude oil, two chemical and oil, two product and one asphalt). Three bulk carriers and three containerships were also targeted.
UKMTO said after the incidents on March 11 that the latest incident patterns suggested a campaign focused on operational disruption and the creation of uncertainty across maritime traffic flows.
According to the UKMTO’s Joint Maritime Information Center’s advisory note, among incidents reported since March 1, “some affected vessels and offshore assets have potential Western commercial associations, including US, UK, and other Western-linked interests.”
“However, multiple attacks have involved vessels with no confirmed affiliation to US or Israeli ownership, indicating that current strike patterns extend beyond narrowly defined Western targets and may affect a broader range of international commercial shipping,” the note said.
Eight of those vessels were hit while they were sailing to their destination, mostly through or towards the Strait of Hormuz, while six of them were anchored at the time of the attack.
Two of the vessels were affected by the GNSS interference so it is difficult to tell but they were presumably waiting for a safe passage to leave the Middle East Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. One of them is the Liberia-flagged containership Source Blessing (IMO: 9243198) which was the target of an unknown projectile while it was sailing approximately 35 nm north of Jebel Ali, UAE on March 12.
Source Blessing passed through the Strait of Hormuz one day before the war started and loaded cargo at Hamad Port in Qatar. After loading, it was sailing between anchorages off Qatar and the UAE.
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