Op-Ed: China is Getting Stronger, But Taiwan Invasion in 2025 is Unlikely

[By Joe Keary]

Despite China’s rapid military improvements, it’s unlikely to use large-scale force against Taiwan in 2025. The Chinese leadership’s concerns over the quality of military command, economic weakening, uncertain social stability, and effects of the Trump administration will likely forestall any large-scale military maneuver.

However, China will continue to ramp up pressure against Taiwan in 2025.

On January 6, the United States’ new defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told the Senate Armed Services Committee he believed a Chinese Communist Party fait accompli invasion of Taiwan was the pacing risk scenario for the Department of Defense. He reminded the committee that “Xi Jinping has openly expressed his intention to annex Taiwan to mainland China” and “has told his military to be prepared to use force to achieve such an outcome by 2027.”

Like its successes in artificial intelligence, improvements in China’s military should not be underestimated. In several areas, China’s military is now reaching standards typical of the US military. China’s navy is transforming rapidly and by the end of 2025 is expected to have 395 ships, including three operational aircraft carriers. China is also improving its amphibious fleet, acquiring assault ships that can carry large numbers…