Why shipping is sounding more bullish on short- and long-term risk factors

WHAT does China’s unassailable lead in terms of naval power, the wording of recent US statutes and the adaptability of shipping, all have to do with how a chief financial officer eats their breakfast?

It’s all about how shipping perceives risk and uncertainty right now.

Uncertainty has dominated the shipping industry in the past months.

But this narrative that shipowners are paralysed by the geopolitical volatility is only part of the story.

The global economy is at a crossroads. We are entering an era of superpower rivalry between the US and China that will fundamentally upend established trading assumptions and fragment shipping down geopolitical lines.

Now, depending on who you are talking to, the response to that uncertainty results in either a barely concealed fist-bump of joy as they mentally run through the profitable opportunities ahead, or near-term paralysis as they conclude that there is no value in strategic investment in the face of such unknowable odds.

And that’s because this isn’t just the long-term disintegration of a rules-based order that we are talking about, although that is part of it.

Near term that uncertainty is created by the fact it is now security not economics that is driving the bus when it comes to US decision making, and that’s confusing everyone.

Agility is the new currency for shipping. We have to adapt to all these challenges — shipping’s bullish elite told us.

Volatility is the lifeblood of profitable shipping and certainty has never been a prerequisite for making decisions. So, why complain about exogenous shocks now?

On stage, the message was defiant: shipowners paralysed by the geopolitical swings risk losing out.

Off stage, their commitment to specific questions of progress and investment was generally more hesitant.

But they still need to make decisions — and that’s the focus of this week’s podcast.

Joining Richard this week on the podcast are:

• Øystein Tunsjø, professor of international relations, head of security in Asia program, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Norwegian Defence University College

• Brian Maloney, partner, Seward & Kissel

• Annicken Kildahl, CFO, Grieg Maritime

• Hing Chao, executive chairman, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport