Greece is set to enter 2026 with economic growth largely taken
Greece is set to enter 2026 with economic growth largely taken for granted. Yet behind the headline optimism, the state budget for the year highlights a series of challenges that could test the resilience of the recovery. From ambitious investment targets to stubborn inflation and lagging household incomes, the outlook combines promise with significant uncertainty.
Investment: The Big Bet of 2026
The centerpiece of Greece’s economic strategy for 2026 is investment. According to the budget, investment growth is expected to accelerate sharply, reaching 10.2% in 2026, up from 5.7% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024. This surge is projected to be driven by a combination of private-sector activity and a significantly expanded public investment program, budgeted at €16.7 billion in 2026, compared with €14.6 billion the year before.
If achieved, this pace would far exceed the eurozone average, where investment growth is estimated at 2.5% in 2026. The investment-to-GDP ratio is also forecast to rise, from 16.4% in 2025 to 17.7% in 2026, narrowing Greece’s long-standing productive gap with the rest of Europe.
However, past performance casts doubt on these projections. Investment targets have repeatedly fallen short in recent years. In 2024, investment growth was initially
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