The Chipotle indicator: Is the economy teetering on a recession or nah?

And if it's to be believed on an initial pass, we are either in a mild recession or nearing one.

While I was listening to Chipotle’s earnings call Wednesday night, CEO Scott Boatwright pinned a weak quarter and soft start to the fourth quarter (sales trends worsened versus the third quarter) on the financial troubles of young people.

It makes sense at first glance: AI is ripping through the entry-level job market, and 25-year-olds are still repaying loads of college debt.

"Earlier this year, as consumer sentiment declined sharply, we saw a broad-based pullback in frequency across all income cohorts," Boatwright explained. "Since then, the gap has widened, with low to middle-income guests further reducing frequency. We believe that this guest, with household income below $100,000, represents about 40% of our total sales, and based on our data, is dining out less often due to concerns about the economy and inflation. A particularly challenged cohort is the 25 to 35-year-old age group."

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I wasn't surprised at all by the assessment — Boatwright told me this on the Opening Bid Unfiltered podcast in late August. Still, it's tough to stomach months later with the market at records and a general view that the consumer is OK.

American Express (AXP) revealed a bang-up third quarter a week ago. CEO Stephen Squeri told me his credit card business is rocking due to millennial spending and sign-ups. He has seen no resistance to Amex jacking up the Platinum Card annual fee to $895 from $695 in October.