What a $10K Investment in Tesla Could Look Like by 2030
If you had invested $10,000 in Tesla’s (TSLA) stock four years ago, it would be worth about $13,700 today, thanks to a 37% price gain since late December 2021.
That’s a solid profit, but it falls well short of the massive returns you’d have gotten with other high-profile stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) or Alphabet (GOOG). The next four years could be a lot more lucrative for Tesla investors — or a lot worse.
What could a $10,000 Tesla investment today look like by 2030? Here’s what a couple of experts had to say.
Also see the Tesla investing mistake that could cost you thousands.
The Bull Case
A $10,000 investment in Tesla today could be worth twice that much by 2030 if the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle (EV) maker reaches certain benchmarks, according to Chad Cummings, an attorney and certified public accountant (CPA) at Cummings & Cummings Law who previously worked in finance and tax.
But for that to happen, a lot of things would have to go the right way.
“If Tesla scales its energy storage segment and increases paid software penetration above current rates, [its] position could exceed $20,000,” Cummings told GOBankingRates. “The S&P 500 at an 8% compound rate places the same $10,000 near $15,900, which is the realistic hurdle Tesla must beat. Even so, there are some major headwinds.”
Those headwinds include “litigation and regulatory exposure” that could drive Tesla’s downside more than macro trends, according to Cummings.
“A single autonomous-related fatality that triggers a regulatory halt can cut Tesla’s valuation by tens of billions within days,” he said. “The insurance and legal systems still have yet to fully price in autonomous driving and the results, which creates something of a hot potato.”
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Looking Beyond the EV Market
Another thing to keep an eye on is how Tesla’s non-EV businesses perform over the next few years — mainly its energy generation/storage and other services. These businesses are considered by many to be the stock’s main growth drivers.
“A $10,000 investment in Tesla right now depends less on the EV side than people think,” said Edward Corona, founder of The Options Oracle AI Trade Manager. “I honestly don’t believe Tesla’s main focus is cars anymore — but they still need the car business to keep the money flowing while they build everything else. And Elon has about one trillion reasons now to make sure the long-term plan pays off.”
The “one trillion reasons” comment refers to Musk’s new compensation package, which could be worth about $1 trillion if certain milestones are met.
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