Bitcoin's Slide to $64,000 Is a 'Macro Shock,' Not a Market Breakdown
Bitcoin's drop to $64,000 is the result of compounding macro shocks landing on a market carrying significant leverage—not a structural breakdown of the cycle, according to analysts.
The leading crypto slipped to $63,822 on Tuesday, extending weekly losses to 6.4%, according to CoinGecko. It now trades roughly 50% below its $126,080 all-time high set five months ago, as digital asset investment products log their fifth consecutive week of outflows.
The selloff tests whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact or if shifting macro conditions have permanently altered its trajectory, with experts pointing to trade policy, rates, and leverage as culprits, not broken fundamentals.
"Bitcoin's drop below $64,000 was not a single event," Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Decrypt. "It was the result of several macro shocks landing over time on a market carrying significant leverage built up from its October 2025 all-time high."
Lucas pointed to President Trump's decision to raise global tariffs to 15% as the starting point, which rattled risk assets broadly. "Despite the 'digital gold' narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset," she said. "When macro fear spikes, capital rotates toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet."
The Federal Reserve’s inaction has compounded the pressure, with the odds of a no-rate-cut rising to 96%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Crypto Funds Shed $4B Across Five-Week Negative Streak
Sticky inflation is reinforcing that scenario amid a higher-for-longer regime, which has continued to weigh on risk assets. Investors turning up leverage on Bitcoin, as noted in a previous Decryptreport, has not helped with the recovery.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, echoed the macro-driven diagnosis.
"Bitcoin's price fall does not suggest a structural breakdown but reflects a combination of macro-driven pressures, including renewed tariff escalations, risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto, and persistent negative ETF flows," he told Decrypt.
ETF flows have turned negative for five straight weeks, with $4 billion in outflows and trading volume at its lowest since July 2025, Decrypt previously reported.
"Pessimistic rate cut expectations, fears of U.S. government shutdown, and now tariffs push prices down as trading entities recalibrate," Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Decrypt. "But this might also force miners to sell to keep operations going, as rewards are worth less than, or are very close to, production cost."
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