Is Iraq About to Make Its Biggest Geopolitical Pivot in Years?

However, as new Western sanctions have dropped into place, so its major firms have increasingly re-established their presence on the ground in Iraq -- and in critical parts of its oil and gas infrastructure. France’s TotalEnergies is leading a US$27 billion four-pronged deal that includes completing the Common Seawater Supply Project. This is the key project that will determine whether Iraq is ever able to meaningfully increase its oil production, and -- done correctly -- it could see output rise to 12 million barrels per day, as fully analysed in my latest book. Meanwhile, Great Britain’s BP has agreed a US$25 billion five?field deal in northern Iraq, which the West can subtly leverage to counter Russian and Chinese efforts to eliminate the Kurdistan region’s semi?independence and fold it into a pro?Russia, pro?China Baghdad. And on?the?ground development of Iraq’s biggest and best oil fields, such as West Qurna 2, by Western majors like Chevron, should further anchor Baghdad’s interests with those of the West. Currently producing up to 480,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, the original development plan for the West Qurna 2 field – with estimated recoverable oil reserves of around 13 billion barrels and one of the lowest lifting costs in the world at just US$2-3 per barrel -- was to produce 1.8 million bpd. This was amended in 2013 to a three?stage plan with a peak of 1.2 million bpd. At the same time, the targeted initial capacity of the fields comprising the Nasiriyah Project was 600,000 bpd. It looks reasonable to conclude that if Baghdad continues down this path, Iraq’s long?anticipated pivot back toward the West may finally begin to take shape -- and this time, the momentum behind it would appear far harder for Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran to reverse.