Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq plunge, oil surges as fresh strikes intensify Iran conflict

The US stock market slid deeply into the red on Tuesday after the US and Israel began a new barrage of attacks against Iran, and a widening conflict turned up nerves about a drawn-out regional war.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the retreat, losing roughly 1.9%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) saw slightly leaner drops of 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, as oil prices rallied further on concerns about blocked supply and, increasingly, threats to production.

It's a sea of red in foreign stock markets and foreign exchange-land this morning, as my colleague Jake Conley has been writing. Investors pricing in higher energy costs, lower risk appetite, and a more expensive dollar are unwinding many of the most profitable trades of the last year.

After a decent drubbing on Friday and being closed for a holiday Monday, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is sinking 12% this morning — the most since 2020. (It has still tripled from the April 2025 post-Liberation Day lows.)

Global currencies swung widely this morning as foreign exchange traders priced in the effects of what has become an increasingly broad supply-side inflationary shock.

The dollar is gaining not only on an index basis but against a basket of other currencies as the market assesses that the US is less exposed to direct physical supply disruption, though not immune.

Best Buy (BBY) stock jumped as much as 12% in premarket trading despite the retailer reporting a surprise sales slump in its key holiday shopping season.

Same-store sales declined 0.8% in the fourth quarter, the company said Tuesday. Wall Street had hoped for a 0.2% increase after two straight quarters of positive growth.

"Our data sources show our overall market share was at least flat, pointing to slightly softer customer demand for our industry during the holiday quarter," Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said in the release.

There will be a lot of pomp and circumstance for Target (TGT) today. At the same time as the retailer puts out its earnings release, it’s holding its annual investor day in its backyard of Minneapolis.

I think the company — now led by a new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, and an almost entirely new leadership team — will hype its store investment plans and say that 2025 results will be a low-water mark.

Execs will probably use today’s earnings beat and call out of positive sales in February to help their pitch to Wall Street (and investors more broadly, who have been burned badly by the stock in the past five years).

All of that said, I am not taking the bait, and you shouldn’t take it either. Target should stay in the penalty box and is a "prove it" stock. That means until it starts stacking positive quarters, you just don’t buy the stock and continue to favor Walmart (WMT) or Costco (COST) on pullbacks.

Here’s what I didn’t like from Target’s quarter to underscore my point:

As I mentioned in a prior post, keeping market history in mind during war situations is important.

While the spike in oil (BZ=F, CL=F) prices looks painful (and it is), we haven't seen a worst-case scenario.

That was called out in this chart Deutsche Bank:

You may be wondering why we are seeing Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) sell-off more than the broader market this week. Sure, there is the thinking that with stocks down and with us at war, people put off buying the more expensive cars and trucks each automaker continues to hawk.

But keep this mind. Both automakers have made a hard pivot away from electric vehicles and passenger cars, each being ideal in an environment of sustained higher gas prices (which we may be looking at). Ford especially is really playing up its pickup truck bonafides.

Another surge in oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) isn't helping market sentiment this morning.

But remember in this backdrop, markets will tend to take their initial cues from the leaders running point on the war (Trump, Hegseth, and so on)

Helpful assessment of this from Mizuho today:

Good point by JP Morgan this morning on bank stocks: Look for a first quarter lift to banks' trading business from increased volatility across many markets from the war on Iran

JPMorgan says (emphasis added):

Their top US names to trade off this prospect include Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), given their outsized trading operations.

Goldman Sachs is calling attention to a pickup in inflation coming soon, given that oil prices are surging.

Its team notes that a 10% increase in crude oil prices typically raises "core" inflation — which strips out volatile energy and food prices — by 4 basis points and headline inflation by 20-30 basis points.

It's good in these moments, when the market has been punched in the face, to level-set a bit.

Pullbacks on developing war news are normal. But just keep this chart from Keith Lerner at Truist in mind.

Since 2009, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has seen more than 30 pullbacks of greater than 5%. That suggests stocks can end up resilient in the face of bad news.