Bitcoin Poised for 38% Rally as US Debt Surges to $40 Trillion

Bitcoin is anticipated to experience significant gains as the US prepares to implement a major debt-increasing bill, mirroring historical trends where similar fiscal policies have led to sharp price rallies. The projected surge in US national debt to $40 trillion by 2025 is driving investor interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. According to sources, Bitcoin’s previous 38% rally following the 2020 spending bill sets a precedent that could propel BTC/USD beyond $150,000 if history repeats itself.

The impending passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin investors, as the US national debt is forecasted to reach an unprecedented $40 trillion by 2025. This astronomical increase, nearly doubling the debt from $23.2 trillion in early 2020, signals expansive fiscal stimulus and liquidity injection into the economy. Historically, such debt expansions have correlated with substantial Bitcoin price appreciation, as investors seek refuge from inflationary pressures and currency debasement. This fiscal environment creates fertile ground for Bitcoin’s next bull run, potentially mirroring the 38% surge witnessed after the 2020 COVID-19 relief bill.

Beyond US fiscal policy, Bitcoin’s price dynamics are closely tied to global liquidity conditions, particularly the M2 money supply. Recent data shows M2 reaching a new all-time high above $55.4 trillion, reflecting expansive monetary policy worldwide. This liquidity expansion typically precedes or coincides with Bitcoin rallies, as excess capital seeks alternative stores of value. Analysts note that while M2 growth may continue beyond Bitcoin’s bull market peak, the initial surge in money supply often fuels significant upward momentum in BTC/USD. This relationship underscores the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators alongside fiscal developments to anticipate Bitcoin’s price movements accurately.

Bitcoin’s response to major US spending legislation offers valuable insights into potential future performance. When President Trump signed the COVID-19 relief bill in late 2020, Bitcoin surged approximately 38% within weeks, demonstrating the market’s sensitivity to increased government spending and debt issuance. This precedent is particularly relevant as the “Big Beautiful Bill” approaches enactment, with market participants anticipating a similar bullish reaction. Should Bitcoin replicate this trajectory, BTC/USD could surpass the $150,000 mark, representing a substantial return on investment within a compressed timeframe. This scenario highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a strategic asset in times of fiscal expansion and economic uncertainty.

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as the US embarks on another phase of aggressive fiscal policy. The anticipation surrounding the “Big Beautiful Bill” has already influenced market positioning, with increased inflows into Bitcoin and related crypto assets. This behavior reflects a broader trend of institutional and retail investors seeking protection against potential inflation and currency depreciation. Additionally, the growing recognition of Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature enhances its appeal as a hedge in an environment characterized by unprecedented monetary expansion. Monitoring sentiment indicators and capital flows will be critical for assessing the sustainability of Bitcoin’s price gains in the coming months.

The convergence of soaring US national debt, expanding global liquidity, and historical price patterns positions Bitcoin for a potentially significant rally following the enactment of the “Big Beautiful Bill.” While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the data-driven correlations and market sentiment suggest that Bitcoin could experience a substantial price increase, possibly exceeding $150,000. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing optimism with prudent risk management as macroeconomic factors continue to evolve. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025 will serve as a critical barometer for the interplay between fiscal policy and digital asset markets.