Bitcoin Surges 118% Since September 2024 Driven by Exchange Outflows

Bitcoin's price has surged beyond $109,000, driven by consistent outflows from exchanges and active trading within the Bitcoin ETF market. Data from early July 2025 indicates a fifth consecutive week of net withdrawals from exchanges, signaling a shift in asset custody. This trend aligns with rising transaction fees and strong ETF market capitalization, reflecting increased investor engagement across multiple fronts.

Recent figures reveal that Bitcoin exchanges have experienced net outflows totaling $920 million over the past five weeks. This sustained pattern suggests that holders are transferring BTC off exchanges into private wallets, indicating a preference for long-term storage over immediate selling. The reduction in sell pressure on exchanges further supports this notion. Additionally, the rise in network fees, which have increased by 13.8% to $3.86 million, points to heightened transaction volume and activity on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Historical flow data supports this pattern, with large outflows coinciding with Bitcoin price surges. Notable peaks in outflows occurred in late November, mid-February, and April, periods that also marked significant BTC price rallies. In contrast, inflows onto exchanges are less frequent and tend to spike during price corrections or consolidations, possibly reflecting short-term trading or profit-taking activity.

The Bitcoin ETF market continues to demonstrate large scale and liquidity. The total market capitalization for all listed Bitcoin ETFs is reported at $138.35 billion, with assets under management (AUM) of $138.09 billion. Trading volumes remain high, with $2.63 billion recorded across the market. Leading the sector, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) maintains an AUM of $76.31 billion and holds the highest trading volume of $2.04 billion, despite a slight price decrease. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) holds $21.35 billion in assets and trades with a volume exceeding $150 million. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) retains a market cap of $20.15 billion, with a current price of $86.07, albeit with a minor decline. The highest turnover rate of 5.34% implies that ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) has a relatively active trading spirit among all the ETFs. The average expense ratios for these ETFs range from 0.20% to 0.25%, with GBTC having a rate of 1.50%.

The cost of Bitcoin has been increasing since September 2024, when it was priced at about $50,000, to over $110,000 in early July 2025. This expansion is linked to continued outflows on exchanges, which can decrease liquidity available for trading and help create upward price pressure. Daily inflow and outflow numbers confirm that while spikes in inflows will regularly occur, the net effect will still tend toward net outflows, favoring holders’ accumulation.