This Harvard Economist Once Predicted That Bitcoin Had A Greater Chance Of Falling To $100 Than Hitting $100K—Here's What He Says He Missed
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Bitcoin’s staying power and growth are due to regulatory failure, a rise in illicit activity and brazen corruption by the Trump administration, according to Harvard Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff.
Rogoff outlined Tuesday on X why he believes a 2018 call he made about the asset has widely missed the mark.
The former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2018 told CNBC that Bitcoin had a better chance of crashing to $100 than reaching $100,000. Why? He reasoned that governments around the world would crack down on the use of the asset, as in his view, its only use case was for money laundering and tax evasion. Seven years later, the market has proven Rogoff wrong as the asset’s value has risen more than tenfold since then to soar past the $100,000 mark.
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While his price forecast may have fallen through, Rogoff does not believe that his primary assumptions about Bitcoin were wrong.
"What did I miss?" he said on Tuesday. "I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities?"
"I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy," he continued, adding, "I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest."
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For Bitcoin proponents, however, Rogoff’s statements only prove that he has yet to understand the asset.
"TLDR: Fiat economist still doesn't understand bitcoin. Blames everyone but himself for missing it," prominent market commentator Anthony Pomplianosaid.
According to Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad, what Rogoff really missed was the impact of the underlying blockchain technology.
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