Strategy Inc Stock (MSTR) Drops as Bitcoin Buying Spree Continues: Today’s News, MSCI Index Risk, Nasdaq 100 Update, and Analyst Forecasts (Dec. 15, 2025)

Strategy Inc stock (Nasdaq: MSTR) is back in the spotlight on Monday, December 15, 2025, after the company disclosed another near-$1 billion Bitcoin purchase—its latest move in an aggressive “Bitcoin treasury” playbook that has made MSTR trade less like a traditional software company and more like a highly liquid proxy for Bitcoin exposure.

By mid-session, MSTR traded around $164.74, down roughly 6.6% on the day, after ranging between $177.39 and $163.85. Bitcoin also weakened, trading near $86,965 (down about 2.4%) after an intraday high near $89,948.

That shared red tape—Bitcoin down, MSTR down—is a familiar pattern for investors. What’s new today is the combination of:

a fresh, SEC-filed look at Strategy’s financing machine (common stock + preferred stock programs), ^[1]
confirmation that Strategy is staying in the Nasdaq 100 after the annual reconstitution, ^[2]
and a looming, potentially market-moving MSCI index eligibility decision expected next month. ^[3]

Below is what matters most for anyone tracking Strategy Inc stock right now—headlines, forecasts, and analysis as of 15.12.2025.

Strategy buys 10,645 Bitcoin for $980.3 million — holdings climb to 671,268 BTC

In a Form 8‑K dated December 15, 2025, Strategy reported it acquired 10,645 BTC during the week December 8–14, spending $980.3 million at an average price of $92,098 per Bitcoin. ^[4]

After the purchase, Strategy said it held 671,268 BTC with an aggregate purchase price of about $50.33 billion, for an average cost basis of $74,972 per coin. ^[5]

At today’s Bitcoin price (roughly $86,965), those holdings imply a market value around $58 billion—illustrating why MSTR remains tightly coupled to crypto market direction even when the company itself is announcing “accumulation” as the primary strategic objective. ^[6]

A key detail: this wasn’t a one-off. Strategy has now posted two consecutive, near-$1B weekly buys in December, following a prior disclosure of about $962.7 million in purchases earlier this month (a separate weekly update). ^[7]

How Strategy funded the Bitcoin purchase: heavy ATM issuance across common and preferred stock

The December 15 8‑K also laid out exactly how Strategy financed last week’s Bitcoin buy: through its at‑the‑market (“ATM”) offering programs across MSTR common stock and multiple lines of preferred stock. ^[8]

Common stock: 4.79 million MSTR shares sold in one week

Strategy disclosed it sold 4,789,664 shares of MSTR during Dec. 8–14, generating $888.2 million in net proceeds (after sales commissions). ^[9]

That figure matters because it reinforces the central trade-off embedded in MSTR:

Investors get leveraged exposure to Bitcoin through an operating company structure,
but shareholders also face ongoing dilution when Strategy uses equity issuance to fund Bitcoin accumulation.

Preferred stock: STRD was the big contributor this week

Over the same period, Strategy also sold preferred shares via ATMs, including:

STRD (Stride): 1,029,202 shares, $82.2M net proceeds ^[10]
STRF (Strife): 163,306 shares, $18.0M net proceeds ^[11]
STRK (Strike): 7,036 shares, $0.6M net proceeds ^[12]
STRC (Stretch): no sales reported^[13]

In total, Strategy reported $989.0 million in net proceeds raised during the week—closely matching the $980.3 million deployed into Bitcoin. ^[14]

“Dry powder” remains enormous

Strategy also disclosed remaining ATM capacity (listed as “available for issuance and sale”), including approximately:

$12.56B for MSTR common stock,
$4.04B for STRC,
$20.34B for STRK,
$4.01B for STRD,
$1.62B for STRF. ^[15]

Translation: Strategy has signaled it still has a very large runway to keep raising capital for future buys—one reason MSTR’s moves can feel more like a capital markets strategy than a typical corporate treasury decision.

Why Strategy Inc stock fell anyway: dilution fears collide with Bitcoin weakness

Today’s market reaction—MSTR down sharply even after the company bought more Bitcoin—highlights a key reality in late 2025: the “buy Bitcoin” headline alone isn’t enough anymore.

Two pressures appear to be dominating sentiment:

Bitcoin’s pullback and range trading
With Bitcoin down on the day and still struggling to regain higher levels seen earlier in the quarter, MSTR is not getting the “rising tide” effect that historically amplified its equity returns.
Equity issuance fatigue
Even investors who like the thesis can dislike the mechanics—especially when large weekly purchases are funded primarily through common-stock issuance, which can weigh on per-share economics and often becomes a focal point in bearish analyses.

This is consistent with recent market commentary that Strategy’s aggressive buying has not translated into proportional stock gains in the current tape. ^[16]

Nasdaq 100 update: Strategy stays in the index (for now)

A second major headline hanging over MSTR was whether it would remain in the Nasdaq 100, given the company’s evolution from enterprise software into a Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet strategy.

Reuters reported that Strategy retained its position in the Nasdaq 100 following the annual review, with the index changes set to take effect December 22, 2025. ^[17]

Why this matters:

Nasdaq 100 inclusion can support passive fund ownership and index-linked flows.
Conversely, exclusion can create forced selling pressure—something analysts had highlighted as a near-term risk heading into the review. ^[18]

In fact, in the days leading up to the reconstitution, Reuters summarized analyst concerns that a removal could drive roughly $1.6 billion in passive outflows. ^[19]
That specific Nasdaq 100 “cliff” appears avoided—for now—but another index-related catalyst remains front and center.

The next headline risk: MSCI’s proposed “digital asset treasury” exclusion (decision due Jan. 15, 2026)

While Nasdaq 100 retention reduces one near-term overhang, a larger benchmark question is coming from MSCI, one of the world’s most influential index providers.

In an MSCI announcement dated October 10, 2025, MSCI said it is consulting on how to treat companies whose primary business involves Bitcoin or digital asset treasury activities, including cases where capital raising is used mainly to accumulate digital assets. MSCI said it proposes excluding companies whose digital asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. ^[20]

MSCI’s timetable is unusually explicit:

the consultation remains open until December 31, 2025,
final conclusions are expected by January 15, 2026,
and any resulting changes would be implemented as part of the February 2026 Index Review. ^[21]

Strategy is lobbying against the change

Strategy has publicly opposed the proposal, arguing that digital-asset treasury companies are operating companies rather than investment funds, and calling the threshold “arbitrary” and “unworkable,” while urging MSCI to revoke the proposal. ^[22]

Market coverage has also emphasized the potential for passive selling if MSCI were to exclude such firms, and the broader debate about whether “Bitcoin treasury” companies should be treated like operating companies or fund-like vehicles. ^[23]

For MSTR stock specifically, this MSCI timeline is shaping up as one of the most important calendar catalysts going into early 2026.

Strategy’s “USD Reserve” and why dividend coverage became part of the stock story

Another layer to the MSTR narrative in late 2025 is Strategy’s growing stack of preferred securities—and what it takes to sustain them.

On December 1, 2025, Strategy announced it established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to support payments tied to dividends on preferred stock and interest on debt (“Dividends”), funded using proceeds from common stock sales under its ATM program. ^[24]

The company also updated Bitcoin KPI targets and explicitly noted that, due to new crypto accounting rules requiring Bitcoin holdings to be measured at fair value with gains/losses recognized in earnings, results are extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s year-end price. ^[25]

In other words: Strategy has been trying to reassure markets that it can keep its financing flywheel spinning—even through periods of weaker Bitcoin prices—without being forced into selling Bitcoin to meet obligations.

Analyst forecasts for Strategy Inc stock: wide targets, big Bitcoin assumptions

Because MSTR’s equity behavior is increasingly Bitcoin-driven, Wall Street price targets are spread across a wide range—often implicitly reflecting different assumptions about Bitcoin’s path, volatility, and Strategy’s ability to fund additional accumulation.

Here’s how major forecast aggregators looked on/around Dec. 15, 2025:

TipRanks: average 12‑month price target $481.08, with a high of $705 and low of $229, and a consensus rating listed as Strong Buy (based on its tracked analyst ratings). ^[26]
TradingView: analyst price target $497.71, max $705, min $229. ^[27]
MarketBeat: average target $475.80, high $705, low $54 (a notably wider low-end range on that platform). ^[28]

How to read these forecasts (and why they diverge)

MSTR targets can shift quickly because they’re often built less like conventional software models and more like:

a view on Bitcoin price direction,
an assessment of premium/discount to Bitcoin net asset value (and how that premium behaves under stress),
and expectations for future dilution, preferred issuance, and debt financing costs.

That mix is why MSTR can rally hard in strong Bitcoin tapes and still struggle when Bitcoin chops sideways—especially if investors begin to discount future equity issuance as the “cost” of continued accumulation.

Key dates and catalysts to watch next

If you’re following Strategy Inc stock into year-end and early 2026, the market is broadly focused on a short list of concrete dates and drivers:

Dec. 22, 2025: Nasdaq 100 reconstitution changes take effect (Strategy is staying in, per Reuters reporting). ^[29]
Dec. 31, 2025: MSCI consultation window closes. ^[30]
Jan. 15, 2026: MSCI says it will announce final conclusions on the proposed treatment of digital asset treasury companies. ^[31]
Feb. 2026: potential implementation window for any MSCI index rule changes. ^[32]
Dec. 31, 2025 Bitcoin price: Strategy has warned that reported earnings can swing materially based on Bitcoin’s year-end price due to fair-value accounting treatment. ^[33]

Bottom line: MSTR is trading like a Bitcoin-driven balance-sheet story—with index rules as the next major swing factor

As of Dec. 15, 2025, Strategy Inc stock sits at the intersection of three forces:

Bitcoin direction (the day-to-day driver),
capital formation and dilution (the structural driver), ^[34]
index inclusion rules (the technical catalyst that can trigger large passive flows). ^[35]

Today’s disclosure reinforces Strategy’s core message—keep accumulating Bitcoin—but the market is clearly demanding more than just bigger buys. Investors are now weighing the cost of that accumulation (issuance and leverage) against the benefits (Bitcoin upside, index-driven liquidity, and the potential for renewed premium expansion in a stronger crypto cycle).