What next for bitcoin as BTC nears $68,000 on fresh US-Iran tensions

The move had the feel of a relief rally more than a clean turn. After weeks of sharp swings, the market has started reacting in waves. A quick push higher draws in dip buyers, then selling appears as soon as price reaches a level where trapped holders can exit with lesser losses.

The difference this week is that each rebound has looked a little less fragile, suggesting forced selling is easing even if conviction buying has not returned in size.

Macro and geopolitics are doing their part to keep traders cautious. Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce after two sessions of gains as investors priced rising Middle East risk.

US President Donald Trump said Thursday he would allow 10 to 15 days for talks on a nuclear deal with Iran, while American forces reportedly built up in the region. That mix has supported haven demand and made it harder for risk assets to build momentum.

Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, said traders are recalibrating after the latest Federal Reserve minutes landed with a more hawkish edge, even if rate hikes are not the main expectation.

“Markets are digesting a more hawkish read-through from the latest Federal Reserve minutes," Cai said. "The key shift isn’t that hikes are suddenly the base case but that policymakers explicitly put them back on the table if inflation doesn’t keep cooling, which effectively raises the hurdle for near-term easing."

"That repricing has supported the dollar and tightened financial conditions at the margin, and you can feel it in risk. Equities have softened and the bid has moved back toward cash-like instruments and short-duration treasuries," she added.

FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich remained bearish in his framing of the broader backdrop. He said that given the market’s prior dynamics and the more cautious tone in US stocks, the odds increase of a retest of local lows, pointing to levels last seen in the second half of 2024.

On ether, he said the token is sitting on a long running support line that traces back to 2020 and lines up with the $2,000 area, but added that a true breakdown would need confirmation through a drop below recent lows around $1,500.

Under the surface, some indicators hint that big holders may be positioning to sell into strength. CryptoQuant says bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record levels, a pattern that can precede heavier spot supply.

Research shop K33 has compared current conditions to the later stages of the 2022 bear market that gave way to a long, grinding consolidation.

The result is a market that can bounce, but struggles to turn rebounds into a trend until spot demand grows louder than the sellers waiting at the next round number.