Assessing MicroStrategy (MSTR) Valuation After Bitcoin Rebound And Fresh 3,015 Bitcoin Purchase
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Strategy (MSTR) is back in the spotlight after a sharp Bitcoin rebound lifted the stock, a fresh 3,015 Bitcoin purchase funded by equity sales, and an STRC preferred dividend increase to 11.5%.
See our latest analysis for Strategy.
Those moves come after a choppy period where the share price has seen a 6.5% 7 day gain but a 29.6% 90 day share price decline. The 3 year total shareholder return sits at roughly 4.7x, underscoring how sentiment around Bitcoin exposure can swing quickly.
If this Bitcoin driven story has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan our screener of 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and see which other crypto exposed stocks fit your watchlist.
With MSTR down 52% over the past year but still showing a roughly 4.7x three year total return, investors are left with a simple question: is this Bitcoin proxy now undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 80% Undervalued
BlackGoat’s widely followed narrative pegs Strategy’s fair value at $663 per share, far above the last close of $132.68, framing MSTR as a high-conviction Bitcoin proxy.
Valuing MicroStrategy remains the ultimate $1,000,000 question. It represents a completely unique investment concept, directly tied to the performance of a highly volatile digital commodity: Bitcoin. As a leveraged beta play on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy introduces not only the inherent risks of Bitcoin’s volatility but also the amplified exposure from its aggressive financial strategies.
Curious how that $663 figure is built. The narrative leans heavily on aggressive earnings momentum, richer margins and a premium multiple that assumes Bitcoin optionality. Want to see which specific forecasts sit under that price tag.
Result: Fair Value of $663 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on Bitcoin sentiment staying supportive, and any sharp compression in Strategy’s NAV premium or tougher crypto regulation could quickly challenge that $663 thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this Strategy narrative.
Next Steps
After all this, are you feeling bullish or cautious about MSTR, and do you want to move quickly to test that view against the data? You can weigh up its mix of concerns and potential upsides by checking out 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs and deciding what really matters for you.
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