Bitcoin-Gold Divergence Splits Retail and Central Banks

Bitcoin and gold are being driven by entirely different buyers in 2026, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at crypto ETP provider 21Shares.

Gold’s multi-year rally has been primarily fueled by central bank accumulation, while bitcoin remains more widely held by individuals than financial institutions.

Physical gold vs. bitcoin’s role

Coltman told Cointelegraph:

“Physical gold has a greater geopolitical strategic role currently, as the asset of choice for state actors who want to store wealth in a way that is protected from rival powers. This has meant that it has traded with greater sensitivity to deteriorating international relations.”

Bitcoin, by contrast, offers utility for individuals who need a financial lifeline when local banking infrastructure collapses during crises.

Coltman pointed to the early days of the current Middle East conflict, when both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges were shut down following missile and drone strikes from Iran — a “stark reminder” of how valuable 24/7 access becomes in wartime.

Gold’s sharp pullback

Ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks drove gold to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026, but it has since pulled back sharply to around $4,497 — falling below its 50-day exponential moving average, a key support level.

The drop has renewed debate about gold’s store-of-value credentials relative to bitcoin.

You can track how the two assets compare over time using the BTC vs. gold chart.

Analysts divided on long-term winner

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes bitcoin is likely to outperform gold over the next three years, arguing that gold’s outsized gains this cycle will erode its relative edge going forward.

Former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio disagrees, maintaining that bitcoin will never replace gold as a reserve asset because it still trades like a risk-on instrument with correlation to technology stocks.

Coltman’s view sits between the two — he told Cointelegraph that the inverse correlation between bitcoin and gold means investors should hold both to benefit from each asset’s unique properties.